tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-86730544248360040652024-03-28T20:29:32.402-07:00Sustainability Suspicionsby Mark JaccardMark Jaccardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18436507359062754635noreply@blogger.comBlogger86125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8673054424836004065.post-33603483861434452912021-08-23T17:05:00.002-07:002021-08-27T07:01:49.514-07:00A zero-emission Canadian electricity system by 2035<p>In <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1mMYN9y4wMW0KmEKtOmxwJRYx8C2VG-ev/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank">our new report</a>, we explain how Canada can achieve a net-zero greenhouse gas emissions electricity system by 2035 and sustain it at net-zero as the total system doubles by 2050. </p><p>You can watch a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S7GXqmot8jo" target="_blank">20-min interview</a> with Markham Hislop of Energi Media in which I discuss key messages of the report.</p><p>This being a Canada-wide objective, we focus on zero-emission policies that the federal government could implement under its authority to set national GHG targets and implement policies of national reach to achieve them. Our federal policy focus is complicated, however, by the fact that the electricity sector is primarily under provincial jurisdiction, environment is a shared jurisdiction and Canadian courts support the “co-operative federalism” spirit of Canada’s Constitution.</p><p>While much of Canada is currently blessed with low-emission electricity from hydro and nuclear power — along with modest contributions from wind, biomass and solar power — some provinces still rely on GHG-emitting coal and natural gas power plants. This contrast in the carbon intensity of provincial electricity systems means that the costs of initially achieving net-zero electricity systems differ between provinces. We therefore propose to reduce divergent cost impacts of federal GHG policy by allowing those provinces with higher carbon-intensity electricity to transition more gradually. Thus, our proposed policies set a net-zero deadline of 2030 for B.C., Manitoba, Quebec, Newfoundland and Labrador and P.E.I., but of 2035 for Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.</p><p>Transitioning Canada’s current electricity system to net-zero is a big challenge. An even bigger challenge is to maintain that net-zero character while the system doubles in output over the next three decades, as electricity consumption replaces the use of coal, oil products and natural gas in transportation, buildings and industries. One constraint is that large hydro and nuclear power, the mainstays of Canada’s current electricity system, are unlikely to receive the same social and political licence for major expansion as in the 1960s to 1980s. Another constraint is that while carbon capture and storage (CCS) is an option for reducing 85 to 90 per cent of emissions from current and future coal and natural gas plants, this technology might also be seen as unacceptable in some locations and it does not by itself achieve net-zero emissions.</p><p>Fortunately, Canada’s geography provides favourable opportunities to develop wind and solar throughout the country, as well as region-specific biomass, small hydro and some geothermal. And while the electricity output of solar, wind and small hydro plants is variable (hence non-dispatchable), these sources can be integrated with energy storage as well as with incentives to adjust the timing of electricity demand (load shifting). Ideally, grid-connected, non-dispatchable generators anywhere in Canada would also benefit from the enormous energy storage of Canada’s existing hydropower reservoirs, but nationwide utilization of this resource requires expanded grid interconnection between provincial electricity systems.</p><p>Canada’s Supreme Court has affirmed the Canadian government’s right to set national GHG emissions targets and implement carbon pricing and emissions-intensity regulations as part of its nationwide effort to achieve these targets. But the federal government does not have a free hand, especially in the electricity sector. Electricity investment and dispatch decisions in Canada are made by private and public corporations (and some municipal utilities) in a complex policy, regulatory and ownership landscape that is dominated by provincial governments. Most provinces have provincial Crown corporations involved to varying degrees in generation, transmission, distribution and system operation. All provinces have an electricity regulator. And all provinces have policies to reduce GHG emissions from electricity generation, although these differ significantly between provinces and collectively neither achieves Canada’s 2030 Paris GHG commitment nor puts it on a trajectory to achieve its 2050 net-zero commitment.</p><p>It is in this context that the federal government’s GHG electricity policies have been associated with the terms “equivalency agreement” and “backstop.” Where a province has GHG-reducing policies at stringencies close to those of the federal government, the two governments may negotiate an equivalency agreement that gives precedence to the provincial policy. However, where a province’s GHG policies are deemed insufficiently stringent, the federal government may opt to apply its carbon price or regulatory standard as a backstop in that province.</p><p>In the case of electricity GHG emissions, two federal policies are key. First, the federal government has an emissions performance standard under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act that sets maximum emission limits of CO2/kWh for electricity generation plants. The latest version of this standard will force the closure of coal-fired power plants by 2030 if they have not installed effective CCS, but it does not prevent the ongoing operation of existing natural gas plants without CCS, nor of coal plants converted to natural gas without CCS.</p><p>Second, the federal government has a price on carbon it can apply to electricity plants via its industrial output-based pricing system (OBPS) under the Greenhouse Gas Pollution Pricing Act. As applied to electricity generators, the OBPS sets benchmark emission intensity standards for each category of generator and charges the carbon price only on emissions exceeding the standard. This incentivizes some emissions reductions without causing significant increases in electricity rates in the provinces with coal and natural gas generators, because only a percentage of emissions are charged the carbon price. However, its benchmark standards allow ongoing GHG emissions beyond 2030 from existing natural gas plants, as well as from coal plants that have been retrofitted with CCS or converted to natural gas.</p><p>Given the necessity of a Canadian shift to zero-emission electricity, we propose that the federal government adjust the stringencies of these two policies to ensure that electricity generation in every Canadian province is net-zero by 2035 at the latest, and remains that way as the system grows to 2050. Specifically, the carbon intensity standard should fall to net-zero CO2/kWh by 2030 in provinces dominated by hydro, nuclear and wind, and by 2035 in provinces currently relying on some coal and natural gas. And the OBPS, as applied to all electricity generators, should adjust the benchmark standards until 100 per cent of electricity-related GHG emissions are charged the rising carbon price that is currently applied to fuels, albeit again with different 2030 and 2035 deadlines depending on the province. This increase in coverage would occur as the carbon price rises on its announced path to $170/tCO2 in 2030 and then continues rising to $300/tCO2 and perhaps higher by 2050 if necessary to achieve the net-zero national target.</p><p>To illustrate the effect of these policy adjustments, we simulate two possible technology pathways for zero-emission electricity in all Canadian provinces by 2035. (In an appendix we also provide the outcome for northern territories.) In both pathways, we assume that provinces will not allow substantial expansion of large hydro and nuclear power, meaning that wind, solar and other renewables dominate generation growth. In both, we assume that the capacities of transmission grid interties between provinces will not be substantially increased, given past reluctance for expanded interdependence. And in both, we assume significant development of energy storage and load shifting to ensure reliable systems as the contribution of variable electricity from wind and solar increases. </p><p>The paths differ, however, in that in one we assume that some provinces will develop zero-emission options that are currently seen as acceptable by their governments. These include the substantial use of natural gas with CCS (and possibly bioenergy with CCS) in Alberta and Saskatchewan, and further development of large hydro in the Atlantic provinces (Gull Island) to take advantage of the new undersea transmission links. In the other path, we assume these developments don’t occur, requiring instead even more wind, solar and other renewables, as well as the additional energy storage these require. </p><p>We estimate this second path as costlier. But that is based on current cost estimates of the various resource options. We note, however, that the eventual outcome could be reversed, especially given the recent experience of major cost overruns of two recent Canadian investments in large hydro (Muskrat Falls and Site C) and one electricity CCS project (the Boundary Dam coal plant). </p><p>We propose that the federal government continue to present its policies as backstops that can be superseded by equivalent provincial policies. However, the federal government must ensure that this co-operative approach does not result in reduced stringency by granting equivalency to provincial policies that are less likely to achieve a national zero-emission electricity system. To that end, we propose ongoing independent oversight of federal-provincial equivalency agreements by Canada’s Net-Zero Advisory Body, using the assessment expertise of the Canadian Institute for Climate Choices.</p><p>We also propose that the federal government encourage multi-government equivalency agreements with two or more neighbouring provinces that wish to be treated as one entity for the purpose of electricity-sector GHG emissions. Dramatic increases in wind and solar over the next decades will require massive investments in energy storage, especially in provinces that lack large hydro reservoirs. These costs can be significantly lowered if federal policy promotes expanded grid interties between hydro reservoir–endowed provinces and their neighbours. However, given the primacy of provincial jurisdiction in electricity, this cost-saving interprovincial system co-ordination will only happen where provincial governments are willing. In this regard, the past decade has witnessed promising developments at least in the Atlantic provinces with the development of the Maritime Link transmission line.</p><p>As noted, our report is about federal policy to achieve a national objective, that being a zero-emission Canadian electricity system. Our report is thus silent on many other policy concerns of electricity system stakeholders. These unaddressed topics include centralized versus decentralized generation, economically efficient system operation, the pros and cons of public versus private ownership, financing capacity investments, electricity affordability, electric utility regulation, transition support for displaced workers, reliability of electricity generation and distribution as non-dispatchable renewables and electricity demand peaks increase, non-GHG environmental and social trade-offs of alternative zero-emission electricity options, cost-effective energy efficiency and load shifting, innovation and adoption in energy storage, reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples, and special challenges of zero-emission electricity in remote and northern communities. Many of these issues will be primarily addressed by provincial governments, each with their own priorities and preferred methods. However, the federal government must play a key role in supporting the net-zero transition in Indigenous and northern communities, given its clear constitutional responsibilities in these areas.</p><div><br /></div>Mark Jaccardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18436507359062754635noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8673054424836004065.post-35171085360996462432021-01-19T15:12:00.000-08:002021-01-19T15:12:00.845-08:00Interview on 'The Strong and Free Podcast'<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkQjL1jGzOyUqDqnc4wx5vTlgPSifxmPhMPC6ylMp8iuXyOJ0LKGFlwaaYXbkH9ovkG6nsBpIu3SuR24Tjoh4r4w2-fx7Z4RpgOBK9MHXpch3lfV5jvl2xY1pbDdyXFwiAzTqtPp5U_Do/s1806/Screen+Shot+2021-01-19+at+2.50.25+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1094" data-original-width="1806" height="261" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkQjL1jGzOyUqDqnc4wx5vTlgPSifxmPhMPC6ylMp8iuXyOJ0LKGFlwaaYXbkH9ovkG6nsBpIu3SuR24Tjoh4r4w2-fx7Z4RpgOBK9MHXpch3lfV5jvl2xY1pbDdyXFwiAzTqtPp5U_Do/w431-h261/Screen+Shot+2021-01-19+at+2.50.25+PM.png" width="431" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p>Really engaging discussion about my latest book, The Citizen's Guide to Climate Success' with Christopher Balkaran on his podcast <a href="https://www.thestrongandfreepodcast.com" target="_blank">The Strong and the Free</a> (referring to the line in the Canadian national anthem, "the true north strong and free" is based on the Lord Tennyson's description of Canada).</p>Mark Jaccardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18436507359062754635noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8673054424836004065.post-50935857969403882752020-12-09T07:31:00.012-08:002021-04-26T21:33:34.941-07:00Citizen's Guide 4 min videos<p>Citizen's Guide 4 min videos: <a href="https://youtu.be/n5-hOdvSjkY" target="_blank">Should we support campaigns to halt fossil fuel production?</a></p><p>Citizen's Guide 4 min videos: <a href="https://youtu.be/pLhcQBhzrtw" target="_blank">What are carbon tariffs?</a></p><p>Citizen's Guide 4 min videos: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1tSenmE7yvw&feature=emb_logo" target="_blank">Are electric vehicles part of the climate solution?</a></p><p>Citizen's Guide 4 min videos: <a href="https://youtu.be/2v_QsqiBcNQ" target="_blank">Do carbon offsets reduce greenhouse gas emissions?</a></p><p>Citizen's Guide 4 min videos: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Ura8mMQyhk" target="_blank">What is the best climate policy?</a></p><p>Citizen's Guide 4 min videos: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EsKqC9pjdeY" target="_blank">The Low Carbon Fuel Standard</a></p><p>Citizen's Guide 4 min videos: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpe5TtLcnkI" target="_blank">Are Fossil Fuels Evil</a>?</p><p> Citizen's Guide 4 min videos: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWQZIecbNeA" target="_blank">How do climate-concerned citizens get climate-sincere politicians?</a></p><p> Citizen's Guide 4 min videos: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9f71_9SKh2U&t=5s" target="_blank">The Zero-Emission Vehicle Mandate</a></p><p> Citizen's Guide 4 min videos: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqlzsOddSxM&t=13s" target="_blank">COVID spending and climate</a></p><p> Citizen's Guide 4 min videos: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-j9cQQcBuE" target="_blank">Book overview</a></p>Mark Jaccardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18436507359062754635noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8673054424836004065.post-23744798104278094382020-05-19T20:51:00.000-07:002020-05-19T20:51:37.245-07:00Question and Answer session on The Citizen’s Guide to Climate Success<span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 14px;">Here is the <a href="https://youtu.be/to08glTLY0c" target="_blank">video recording</a> of my Question and Answer session on The Citizen’s Guide to Climate Success on May 12, 2020. Thank you to the group, Climate Crisis Legislation Needed Now, particularly Ken Johnson and Kathleen O’Hara.</span>Mark Jaccardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18436507359062754635noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8673054424836004065.post-71944780440299366032020-05-13T07:13:00.001-07:002020-05-13T07:13:39.064-07:00Emergency: The Citizen's Guide to Climate Action<span style="font-family: inherit;">Here is the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZdmmQgm7Ceg&feature=youtu.be" target="_blank">link to the video </a>of my public talk hosted by Academics for Climate - University of Regina held via Zoom on April 28, 2020 entitled '<span style="color: var(--ytd-video-primary-info-renderer-title-color, var(--yt-spec-text-primary)); font-variant: var(--ytd-video-primary-info-renderer-title-font-variant, inherit);">Emergency: The Citizen's Guide to Climate Action'. </span><span style="background-color: #f9f9f9; caret-color: rgb(3, 3, 3); color: #030303; white-space: pre-wrap;">This Zoom talk is part of the Academics for Climate Community Series: Towards a Better Understanding of Climate Change in Saskatchewan, an interdisciplinary series designed to increase public understanding of climate change and its range of impacts - local and global. My talk was in co-sponsorship with Johnson Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy through the Centre for the Study of Science and Innovation Policy (University of Saskatchewan), and Now What?!.</span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5L5UZ1eRK8IeS0EEHjBE3Ityhil7J2nszeFFafTR96zVkueBagI1OSKdJ1gUhA5DpXtsbccb43WqekifCreNwhFllraq0GwR-Ha1wDAAGjBsAesyEVouJZjN8Voti9cFpR75ez2nVKxA/s1600/Screen+Shot+2020-05-13+at+7.13.00+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="1600" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5L5UZ1eRK8IeS0EEHjBE3Ityhil7J2nszeFFafTR96zVkueBagI1OSKdJ1gUhA5DpXtsbccb43WqekifCreNwhFllraq0GwR-Ha1wDAAGjBsAesyEVouJZjN8Voti9cFpR75ez2nVKxA/s320/Screen+Shot+2020-05-13+at+7.13.00+AM.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: #f9f9f9; caret-color: rgb(3, 3, 3); color: #030303; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span>Mark Jaccardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18436507359062754635noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8673054424836004065.post-17645039705362107242020-05-13T07:05:00.001-07:002020-05-13T07:05:15.613-07:00'A Climate of Change' InterviewMy May 7, 2020 <a href="https://t.co/6avHipH3RF?amp=1" target="_blank">interview</a> on the Calgary Climate Hub's 'A Climate of Change' discussing my new book and what actions people can take to help stop climate change.<br />
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<br />Mark Jaccardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18436507359062754635noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8673054424836004065.post-11468886605206587972020-02-27T14:47:00.003-08:002020-02-27T14:47:48.712-08:00Public Talk at Bay Area (Ontario) Climate Change ForumHere is a <a href="https://www.mohawkcollege.ca/climate-change-forum" target="_blank">link</a> to the a talk I gave on Feb. 26 in Hamilton, Ontario to the Bay Area Climate Change Forum. The event was supported by the Centre for Climate Change Management, in partnership with the Cities of Hamilton and Burlington, and the Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change.<br />
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<br />Mark Jaccardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18436507359062754635noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8673054424836004065.post-4854778196409807042020-02-13T17:08:00.002-08:002020-02-27T14:44:08.490-08:00Public talk at Simon Fraser University on 'Citizen's Guide to Climate Success' <span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Here is the <a href="http://www.sfu.ca/itservices/technical/webcasting-and-video-recording/webcast-archive/2020/02/2020-02-11-foe/">link </a>to the 40-minute talk I gave recently in Vancouver discussing the key point in my new book.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>Mark Jaccardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18436507359062754635noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8673054424836004065.post-6058927975641136022020-02-09T08:11:00.000-08:002020-04-16T09:21:52.092-07:00The Citizen's Guide to Climate Success - Now Available<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The book is available in paperback, hard cover, Kindle/Kobo and Audible.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Follow this link for <a href="http://markjaccard.blogspot.com/2019/11/reviews-of-citizens-guide-to-climate.html" target="_blank">reviews of "A Citizen's Guide to Climate Success"</a></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;">Buy from <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Citizens-Guide-Climate-Success-Overcoming/dp/1108742661/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=">Amazon.com</a></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;">Buy from <a href="https://www.amazon.ca/Citizens-Guide-Climate-Success-Overcoming/dp/1108742661/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=">Amazon.ca</a></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;">Or check other local and online retailers. </span></span><br />
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<b><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Synopsis</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Humanity has failed for three decades to decarbonize our energy system to address the climate threat, yet average citizens still don’t know what to do personally or what to demand from their politicians. For climate success, we need to understand the combined role of self-interested and wishful thinking biases that prevent us from acting effectively and strategically. Fossil fuel and other interests delude us about climate science or try to convince us that every new fossil fuel investment is beneficial. But even climate-concerned people propagate myths that hinder progress, holding to beliefs that all countries will agree voluntarily on sharing the cost of global decarbonization; that carbon offsets are effective; that behavioral change is critical; that energy efficiency and renewable energy are cheap; and that carbon taxes are absolutely essential. For success with the climate-energy challenge, we must strategically focus our efforts as citizens on a few key domestic sectors (especially electricity and transportation), a few key policies (regulations and/or carbon pricing); and the identification and election of climate-sincere politicians. As leading countries decarbonize their domestic electricity and transportation sectors, they must use various measures, including carbon tariffs, to ensure that their efforts spill over to affect the efforts of all countries. And although wealthier countries are unlikely to provide the support that developing countries desire to forego dependence on coal and oil, the combination of tariff threats and the local air pollution and climate benefits from decarbonization will motivate efforts even in these poorer countries. This book offers a clear and simple strategic path for climate-concerned citizens to drive climate success by acting locally while thinking globally.</span></div>
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<span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: small;"><a href="https://grist.org/article/meet-the-mythbuster-for-climate-change/" target="_blank">Meet the MythBuster for climate change</a> - Grist</span></span></h1>
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Mark Jaccardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18436507359062754635noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8673054424836004065.post-22330865713942108192020-01-10T16:41:00.001-08:002020-01-27T14:51:37.442-08:00Endorsements for 'Citizen's Guide to Climate Success'<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">‘Mark Jaccard gives us very direct, practical steps to make a real difference in the climate crisis – both in our daily lives and with our political powers. This is a potent, smart book that draws on Mark's decades of leadership on climate change, economics, and politics. A crucial read to learn what actions will effectively transform our world from climate crisis to a bright livable future.'</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit;">Gregor Robertson</b><span class="apple-converted-space" style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit;"> </span><span style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit;">- Mayor of Vancouver (2008–2018), and Global Ambassador for the Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">‘What is effective climate leadership and how do we overcome political inertia and our biases to ensure swift action? If that's a question that haunts you, Mark Jaccard's The Citizen's Guide to Climate Success is the book for you. With the benefit of decades of experience, research, and designing policy, Mark shares his insights and explores some of the myths and delusions that are holding us back in this well-written and exhaustively researched book. I have more hope for our collective success on climate action after reading Mark's clear, uncompromising analysis. Whether you are a concerned citizen, a journalist, an academic, a student, or an elected politician, you should read this book.'</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit;">Tzeporah Berman</b><span class="apple-converted-space" style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit;"> </span><span style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit;">- International Program Director, Stand.earth</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">‘A gem. Jaccard welds an activist's passion to a bullshit detector honed by decades of practical experience in the muck of energy policy. Mark has forged a uniquely personal voice out of decades of academic work tempered by hard-won experience in the energy-climate wars. It's smart and relevant yet also fun – finding time to explore the carbon footprint of our sex lives. A bucket of ice water to the face after too many soporific climate books. An impassioned yet dispassionate call to action.'</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit;">David Keith<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></b><span style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit;">- Harvard University, and author of </span><span style="font-variant-caps: inherit;"><i>A Case for Climate Engineering</i></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">‘Mark Jaccard draws on three decades of extensive expertise and experience from the forefront of academic, national, and international energy policy to dismantle the common myths and skewer the sacred cows that hold us back from the clean energy transition. He doesn't shy away from discussing the difficult, thorny issues of justice and equality, the dirty politics behind policies, and the risks of putting all our eggs in one basket, whether it's nuclear power or carbon pricing. If you've ever wondered what it will take to fix climate change, this book offers the facts, the analysis, and, ultimately, the clarity we need to understand fully the challenges that confront us and the solutions that will lead us to a better future.'</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit;">Katharine Hayhoe</b><span class="apple-converted-space" style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit;"> </span><span style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit;">- climate scientist, Texas Tech University</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">‘Besides taking an axe to the clichés that dominate the current climate change debate, Mark Jaccard tackles head-on the challenge of creating climate change policies that can achieve sustained political support. This is the book to read if you want a realistic, attainable, and sustainable climate change agenda. It's also a master class in teaching about climate science.'</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit;">Michael Ignatieff</b><span class="apple-converted-space" style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit;"> </span><span style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit;">- President, Central European University</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">‘Mark Jaccard's new book is essential reading for the concerned citizen. Some of the described 'myths' were deliberate lies, but, armed with this deeply thoughtful book, bringing science and human bias and political foibles together, the engaged voter can find the path to meaningful climate action.'</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit;">Elizabeth May</b><span class="apple-converted-space" style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit;"> </span><span style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit;">- Canadian Member of Parliament and Leader of the Green Party of Canada</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">‘At a time when all too many have given up hope in the battle to avert catastrophic climate change, Mark Jaccard's important new book The Citizen's Guide to Climate Success provides a roadmap for success. Jaccard details a viable strategy for citizens working together, placing collective pressure on politicians, to adopt policies that will lead to rapid decarbonization of our economy and the avoidance of truly dangerous planetary warming.'</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit;">Michael<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>E. Mann</b><span class="apple-converted-space" style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit;"> </span><span style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit;">- Director, Penn State Earth System Science Center, and co-author of </span><span style="font-variant-caps: inherit;"><i>The Madhouse Effect: How Climate Change Denial is Threatening Our Planet, Destroying Our Politics, and Driving Us Crazy</i></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">‘If you're looking for a book that cuts through the contention and cant surrounding our climate crisis, this is the place to start. Renowned economist Mark Jaccard identifies and demolishes ten common myths about climate change and humanity's transition to a low-carbon future. Then he shows what steps we should take, as individuals and societies, to address this critical problem effectively. Fearless in challenging received wisdom, and bold in his prescriptions, Jaccard speaks with a clear, brilliantly informed voice about the greatest challenge of our time.'</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit;">Thomas Homer-Dixon</b><span class="apple-converted-space" style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit;"> </span><span style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit;">- University of Waterloo, and author of </span><span style="font-variant-caps: inherit;"><i>The Ingenuity Gap</i></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">‘I cannot think of another book that covers this ground. Mark Jaccard has done a huge service, helping to lay out the vexed ground of climate information, disinformation, and conflicting conclusions. In doing so, he helps pave the way for a meaningful conversation on effective solutions to the climate crisis. This is a must-read and must-teach book.'</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit;"><b>Naomi Oreskes</b><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>- Harvard University, and author of </span><i style="font-variant-caps: inherit;">Why Trust Science?</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">‘There could not be a more timely guide to taking effective climate action.'</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit;">Tim Flannery</b><span class="apple-converted-space" style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit;"> </span><span style="font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit;">- author of </span><span style="font-variant-caps: inherit;"><i>The Weather Makers</i></span></span></div>
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Mark Jaccardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18436507359062754635noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8673054424836004065.post-82737643826063732022019-11-14T12:53:00.004-08:002020-04-16T09:21:17.599-07:00Reviews of "A Citizen's Guide to Climate Success"<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<b style="font-family: arial, sans-serif;"><span style="color: black;">Numerous reviews have already appeared. To read them, follow the links below:</span></b><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">"</span></span><a href="https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/3039160192#_=_" style="font-family: "helvetica neue", arial, helvetica, sans-serif;" target="_blank">Laurent Franckx's Reviews: </a><span style="background-color: white; color: #382110; font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.goodreads.com/review/show/3039160192#_=_" target="_blank">The Citizen's Guide to Climate Success: Overcoming Myths That Hinder Progress</a>" by Laurent Franckx, March 21, 2020, <b>Goodreads</b>.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">"<a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2020/02/28/features/zen-and-art-climate-success" target="_blank">Zen and the Art of Climate Success</a>" by Matthew Klippenstein, February 28, 2020, <b>The National Observer</b>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">"<a href="https://www.zmescience.com/reviews/books/citizens-guide-climate-success-21022020/" target="_blank">The Citizen’s Guide to Climate Success — a Must-Read for the Current Times</a>" by Mihai Andrei, February 21, 2020, <b>ZME Science</b>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">"<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/41c3ff4a-5240-11ea-90ad-25e377c0ee1f" target="_blank">How to heal our planet</a>" by Pilita Clark, February 18, 2020, <b>Financial Times</b>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">"<a href="https://www.gqmagazine.fr/pop-culture/article/que-faire-pour-combattre-le-changement-climatique-arretez-de-croire-ces-mythes" target="_blank">Que faire pour combattre le changement climatique ? Arrêtez de croire ces mythes</a>" translation of essay by Matt Simon, February 11, 2020, <b>GQ France</b>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">“<a href="https://www.wired.com/story/guide-to-climate-success/?utm_source=hootsuite&utm_medium=twitter&utm_term=&utm_content=&utm_campaign=MNE_campaign_MMMYY" target="_blank">Want to Fight Climate Change? Stop Believing These Myths</a>" by Matt Simon, February 7, 2020. <b>WIRED</b>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">“<a href="https://www.macleans.ca/society/solving-the-climate-crisis-isnt-on-consumers-its-on-the-people-in-power/" target="_blank">Solving the climate crisis isn’t on consumers. It’s on the people in power</a>” by John Geddes, January 30, 2020. <b>Maclean’s Magazine</b>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">"<a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/arts/books/article-will-carbon-taxes-really-help-rein-in-climate-change-and-constrain/" target="_blank">When taxes clash with politics, a price on carbon is a tough sell</a>" by Patrick Brethour, January 22, 2020, <b>The Globe and Mail</b>.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">"<a href="https://therevelator.org/environmental-books-january-2020/" target="_blank">Take Your Climate Activism to the Next Level With January’s New Environmental Books</a>" by John R. Platt, Jan. 10, 2020, T<b>he Revelator.</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">"<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/climate-change-failure-1.5400663" target="_blank">What you can do in 2020 to keep the world from burning up</a>" by Don Pittis, Dec. 30, 2019, <b>CBC News.</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">"<a href="https://www.hilltimes.com/2019/11/18/from-a-climate-change-guide-to-a-case-for-indigenous-justice-five-new-books-to-keep-your-eye-on/224500" target="_blank">From a climate change guide to a case for Indigenous justice: five new books to keep your eye on</a>" by Neil Moss, Nov. 18. 2019, <b>Hill Times.</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">"<a href="https://countercurrents.org/2019/11/climate-confusion-angst-and-sleeplessness" target="_blank">Climate Confusion, Angst, and Sleeplessness</a>" by Robert Hunziker, Nov. 12, 2019, <b>Counter Currents. </b> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">•<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Picked up by <a href="https://dissidentvoice.org/2019/11/climate-confusion-angst-and-sleeplessness/">DissidentVoice.org</a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">•<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Picked up by <a href="https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/11/14/climate-confusion-angst-and-sleeplessness/">Counter Punch</a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">"<a href="https://grist.org/article/meet-the-mythbuster-for-climate-change/">Meet the MythBuster for climate change</a>" by Nathanael Johnson, Nov. 5, 2019, <b>Grist.</b></span><br />
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Mark Jaccardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18436507359062754635noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8673054424836004065.post-9665019393979562472019-10-06T11:22:00.001-07:002020-01-27T13:49:15.173-08:00An economist speculates on politics<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A Trudeau minority government may do some good things. But claims that such a minority would achieve all the goals of the smaller parties to whom it would be beholden are unfounded. I repeat the brief case I made in a twitter stream on October 6, 2019.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Tweet thread of October 6, 2019<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">I frequently hear claims that NDP and Green MPs will force a post-election minority Trudeau government to cancel TransMountain Pipeline Expansion, implement proportional representation, and rapidly intensify national climate policies. </span><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">I am not a political scientist, but this thinking seems delusional to me.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Polls consistently show that either the Liberals or the Conservatives will lead the next government. Two out of three Canadians support one of these parties. And both parties support TMX and are unlikely to implement proportional representation without holding a referendum first.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If Canadians elect a minority government October 21, to survive it will most likely (1) negotiate on a bill-by-bill basis to prevent losing a confidence vote (like the Martin government of 2004-06 and the Harper government of 2006-11) or (2) negotiate a confidence agreement with a small party (like today’s governing agreement in BC between the NDP and Greens).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Federally, these types of agreements will not enable smaller parties representing just one third of voters (NDP, Greens, Bloc) to impose their will on the two parties who represent two thirds of voters. Why? Because the Liberals and Conservatives can join forces as necessary to prevent the smaller parties from getting their way on TMX, prop-rep and a radically more ambitious climate effort.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A Liberal minority, to maintain enough NDP and/or Green support to stay in power, might intensify its climate effort and agree to hold a referendum on proportional representation, just as in BC the NDP gave these concessions for Green support. But it is unlikely to halt TMX, just as the BC NDP didn’t halt the Site-C dam or LNG development in spite of Green opposition.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If the NDP and/or Greens make TMX their line in the sand for supporting a Trudeau minority, they risk triggering another election, which could produce a Conservative or Liberal majority. The Greens in BC understand this, which is why they sustain a gov that has done many things they support, in spite of its continuation with Site-C and LNG. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Federal Greens and NDP might make strong, uncompromising statements now while campaigning in an election. But after an election their tone will change as they weigh the benefits of influencing policy under a minority Trudeau government versus the risk of forcing a second election that the Conservatives might win.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It is interesting to look at detailed opinion polls on these three key issues: TMX, proportional representation and climate policy effort. The percentage of Canadians intending to vote Liberal or Conservative is similar to the percentage who support TMX, who don’t support proportional representation, and who don’t seem to want to pay extra for more ambitious climate efforts (as indicated by current support levels for Conservatives and Liberals).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Sorry folks, but if Trudeau forms a minority government thanks to support of NDP and/or Greens, you still won’t get him to reverse the big decisions that so angered you – at least not until more Canadians adopt your views. That’s democracy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Mark Jaccardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18436507359062754635noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8673054424836004065.post-64488293625978007952019-08-01T07:21:00.000-07:002019-08-01T14:15:35.818-07:00If Canadians elect a climate-insincere government in 2019, climate-concerned voters may need to look in the mirror when allocating blame<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">
Two decades ago, I was not alone in predicting that humanity’s chances of rapid decarbonization were low. The reasons were obvious back then, and with hindsight are even more so now.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Climate success requires a coordinated global effort to switch away from burning fossil fuels, yet we lack a global government to impose hard targets and ensure universal compliance. In this context, climate-sincere politicians are constrained from making quick progress because unilateral GHG reductions in their jurisdiction will cause industries (and voters’ jobs!) to flee to laggard jurisdictions, without appreciably lowering global emissions.<o:p></o:p></div>
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And even if the challenge were national rather than global – meaning that one country’s decarbonization would spare it alone from climate change – progress would be extremely difficult. First, as a high-quality energy source, fossil fuels still offer the cheapest path to economic development for the planet’s poorest people. And since fossil fuel endowed regions benefit economically from their continued exploitation, self-interest motivates corporations and individuals to delude themselves and others that each new fossil fuel investment is somehow locally <i>and </i>globally beneficial.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Second, as a multi-decadal project, energy system transformation is out of sync with the 4-year electoral timeframes of democracies. This disconnect enables climate-insincere politicians to mislead voters by promising to achieve distant GHG targets <i>without </i>increasing energy costs. Of course, this is a lie. GHG emissions will not fall without cost-increasing regulations or carbon pricing. But it only takes a small percentage of voters to believe this for climate-insincere politicians to succeed electorally. Effective climate policy is always politically difficult.<o:p></o:p></div>
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With the strong likelihood of continued global failure, we climate-concerned citizens cannot afford to be self-indulgent. What I mean is that we cannot allow ourselves the luxury of righteously rejecting climate-sincere elected officials just because they are neither perfect nor always consistent in our eyes. To get elected, politicians must balance the diverse interests and frequently contradictory demands of voters – “reduce GHG emissions but don’t increase gas prices, transition to renewable energy, but let us do this fossil fuel project, invest in green infrastructure but don’t increase our taxes.” In this world, climate-sincere politicians will not always appear perfect, so climate-concerned citizens need to embrace the adage that we must not allow perfection to be the enemy of good. If we reject climate-sincere politicians because they are not perfect, we could help elect climate-insincere politicians instead. In Canada, sadly, we know this all too well from the experience of 2006 to 2015, when a climate-insincere government supported by less than 40% of voters was able to hold on to power while doing virtually nothing to reduce GHG emissions.<o:p></o:p></div>
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In spite of this recent, stark experience, I nonetheless detect a similar self-indulgence among many climate-sincere Canadians today, especially in my home province of British Columbia. Trying to govern all Canadians involves making compromises. On the climate file, I may disagree strongly with Prime Minister Trudeau’s efforts to expand the TransMountain pipeline (and I do, as I explained in a <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/trudeaus-orwellian-logic-reduce-emissions-by-increasing-them/article38021585/" target="_blank">February 2018 <span style="background-color: white;">Globe and Mail op-ed</span></a>) but this is no excuse for overlooking the rapid development of effective federal climate policy in Trudeau’s first term. In contrast, <i>all </i>previous federal governments were climate-insincere. One should not measure sincerity by the willingness to make GHG commitments (Mulroney, Chretien, Harper), as these are meaningless without compulsory policies. Nor by the willingness to spend money (Martin), as government spending can have only a tiny effect when it is private investments in houses, vehicles and industrial plant and equipment that determine emissions. As I explained in the book Hot Air (with co-authors Jeffrey Simpson and Nic Rivers) climate-concerned citizens can detect climate-sincere politicians because these will be rapidly implementing carbon pricing and/or regulations that independent experts agree will reduce emissions significantly. Climate-sincere politicians will also be working to parlay our domestic GHG reduction efforts into an effective global effort.<o:p></o:p></div>
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In an <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-finally-canada-is-global-example-for-climate-action/" target="_blank">April 15 </a><span style="background-color: white;"><a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-finally-canada-is-global-example-for-climate-action/" target="_blank">Globe and Mail op-ed</a> </span>I briefly summarize the climate-energy policy efforts of the Trudeau government. (The text of that op-ed is appended below.) I explain why the Trudeau government’s policies are impressive and why Trudeau’s TransMountain pipeline issue is of less importance when assessing his government’s climate-sincerity. For success, humanity needs governments in wealthier countries that move quickly to decarbonize their electricity and transportation sectors, while seeking ways to transfer this effort to the developing world. The Trudeau government has been making a significant effort in this direction.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Climate-concerned Canadians need to vote strategically this fall to make sure they don’t elect a climate-insincere government. At the time of writing this blog, the most likely outcome is that the 65% of Canadians who tell pollsters they want a climate-sincere government will split their vote among three parties and enable the election of a climate-insincere government, just as in 2006-2015. When blaming our country for climate inaction, and the continued failure of an effective global effort, it’s time for us self-indulgent perfectionists to look in the mirror.<o:p></o:p></div>
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For more details, stay tuned for my forthcoming book with Cambridge University Press – <b><i>The Citizen’s Guide to Climate Success: Overcoming Myths that Hinder Progress.<o:p></o:p></i></b></div>
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Finally, Canada is a Global Example on Climate Action<o:p></o:p></div>
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Mark Jaccard, Globe and Mail, April 15, 2019<o:p></o:p></div>
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Since 1993, I have occasionally participated as a climate policy expert on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. At our Edinburgh meeting the first week of April, I was struck by the sharp contrast between the consensus of foreign experts that Canada has become a global climate policy leader and the frequent assumption among concerned Canadians that our government is failing on climate. Why this discrepancy?<o:p></o:p></div>
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The Trudeau government’s support of the TransMountain pipeline is one obvious reason. People ask, “How can a sincere government build an oil pipeline?” Another is the government’s admission that its climate plan won’t quite meet its 2030 target. “Isn’t this a repeat of previously ineffective Conservative and Liberal administrations?”<o:p></o:p></div>
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Increasingly, however, I detect a third, less obvious reason: Few climate-concerned Canadians know much about the slate of new federal climate polices, except for the contentious carbon tax. And while global experts agree that the national carbon tax is impressive, they are equally impressed with several other climate policies.<o:p></o:p></div>
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The government’s phased closure of coal plants is crucial to climate-policy experts who know that humanity must eliminate coal-fired power, first in rich countries and soon after in developing countries. To advance this global objective, the Canadian government has leveraged its policy leadership by co-founding with Britain the Powering Past Coal Alliance, a growing force of jurisdictions committed to phasing out coal. My counterparts in China and India already notice the influence on their own countries’ policies.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Global success depends, however, on co-ordinating electricity decarbonization with increasing its use in vehicles, buildings and industry. Our government understands this. In addition to its carbon tax, its clean fuel standard will accelerate the switch in transportation from gasoline and diesel to electricity and sustainably-produced biofuels. Experts around the world are studying this policy, which comes fully into force in two years – if the government is re-elected. It offers a viable alternative for the many jurisdictions unable to implement significant carbon pricing for political reasons. Several U.S. states are considering a version of this policy that California and British Columbia originated a decade ago, called the low carbon fuel standard.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Our hopes for global success increase as political leaders in developing countries realize that the rapid adoption of electric vehicles will abate the smog choking their cities – and their families. Policies such as the clean fuel standard can accelerate this transition and, if co-ordinated with coal phase-out, ensure that falling emissions from gasoline and diesel will not be offset by rising emissions from electricity generation.<o:p></o:p></div>
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The government’s pending regulation on methane emissions is another example of a policy of global significance that is unknown in Canada. Flexibility provisions in the policy will ensure that emitters such as the oil and gas industry can choose the least-cost options to reduce these emissions. Again, other countries are studying this policy.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Yet another key policy recognizes that forcing costly reductions by Canada’s emissions-intensive industries is ineffective if it simply causes an increase in production elsewhere. By adopting Alberta’s regulatory ingenuity, the federal government’s new output-based pricing system for large industries incentivizes their emission reductions without significantly increasing their production costs. Rather than avoiding industrial regulation altogether, like some jurisdictions, Canada is innovating a model of growing interest to policy-makers in developed and developing countries. <o:p></o:p></div>
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In just four years, these and other policies have transformed Canada from a global pariah under the Harper government to a model for climate action under Trudeau. Perhaps the government will build a new oil pipeline and will also miss its 2030 target. But these don’t matter much for the global climate challenge. What matters enormously is the continued implementation of Canada’s emerging, effective climate policies, especially those with global influence. And if the resulting intensified global effort more quickly reduces the world-wide demand for gasoline and diesel, which the planet so desperately needs, then the TransMountain pipeline can shift to transporting different Albertan products, perhaps hydrogen produced from the oil sands or sustainably-produced biofuels on the prairies.<o:p></o:p></div>
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In climate policy, experts agree that Canada is finally a global leader. I wonder if enough climate-concerned Canadians will recognize this, before it’s too late.<o:p></o:p></div>
Mark Jaccardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18436507359062754635noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8673054424836004065.post-50143146534909680902018-12-17T06:41:00.005-08:002018-12-18T08:03:25.380-08:00A chat about carbon pricing<div style="color: #454545; font-family: "helvetica neue"; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;">
Below is a link to a fun podcast chat I had with the very sharp interviewer Jayme Poisson on the un-necessity of carbon pricing. My 15 minute discussion starts at minute 5:45.</div>
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Please share widely.</div>
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<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/the-political-cost-of-carbon-taxes-1.4931195">https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/the-political-cost-of-carbon-taxes-1.4931195</a></div>
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Mark Jaccardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18436507359062754635noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8673054424836004065.post-18160354090663260032018-12-15T09:36:00.001-08:002018-12-15T11:03:52.208-08:00Carbon Pricing: Wasting Time We Cannot Spare on the Optimal Steering Mechanism for the Titanic <span style="font-family: "helvetica"; font-size: 14px;">I am a climate-energy economist open to incorporating in my analysis and policy prescriptions lessons from other disciplines, in this case political science and social psychology. This is why almost 20 years ago I started studying and writing about 'market-oriented regulations’, which I now refer to as 'flex-regs.' It is also why, 14 years ago, I proposed a ‘carbon management standard’ in my book, <a href="https://www.amazon.ca/Sustainable-Fossil-Fuels-Unusual-Enduring/dp/0521679796" target="_blank">Sustainable Fossil Fuels</a>. And it is why I have explained for over a decade to sincere politicians and their advisors how to integrate political acceptability as a policy evaluation criterion alongside cost-effectiveness. Sadly, whenever sincere politicians get interested in climate policy, voices like mine can get drowned out by suggestions from people who have never been interested in the empirical research, especially on the challenges of carbon pricing in first-past-the-post electoral systems where victory often depends on a tiny percentage of voters in a few swing suburban ridings. Also, these people seem to naively assume that this small percentage of voters are willing to invest the necessary time and smarts to carefully assess the verity of misinformation campaigns claiming that carbon pricing is highly punitive and economically disastrous.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica"; font-size: 14px;">Is it any surprise that many in the fossil fuel industry are keen to propose carbon pricing for all emissions of domestic consumers, but only a tiny percentage of their emissions?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica"; font-size: 14px;">Much more to come in a book I have written but not yet published.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "helvetica"; font-size: 14px;">Here is a link to <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-divisive-carbon-prices-are-much-ado-about-nothing/?utm_medium=Referrer:+Social+Network+/+Media&utm_campaign=Shared+Web+Article+Links" target="_blank">my article in the December 15 Globe and Mail</a> and the text is below:</span><br />
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<b>Divisive carbon pricing. Much ado about nothing.</b></div>
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I am a climate-energy economist. Most of us tell politicians: “You must price carbon to succeed against climate change.” Later, after an election, we say, “You opposed carbon pricing and won. That’s bad policy.” Or, we say, “You promised carbon pricing and were defeated. You would have won had I designed and explained it. My students say I’d have been a great politician.”<o:p></o:p></div>
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Fiction? Think again. This has been the economists’ narrative for decades as politicians wrestle with the unforgiving task of decarbonization.<o:p></o:p></div>
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But guess what? Carbon pricing is not essential to stop burning coal and gasoline. We economists only say it is because we prefer it. If we were honest, we would explain that decarbonization can be achieved entirely with regulations. These will cost more, but not a great deal more if policy-makers use flexible regulations, or “flex-regs,” that allow companies and individuals to determine their cheapest way to decarbonize.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Thus, policy-makers can require the phase-out of coal plants while allowing competing electricity generators to determine the cheapest mix of low-emission wind, solar, hydro, geothermal, nuclear, wood, biomethane and natural gas. Likewise, policy-makers can require the phase-out of gasoline vehicles while allowing manufacturers and consumers to determine the contributions of electric, biofuel and hydrogen vehicles.<o:p></o:p></div>
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We economists should also explain that while carbon pricing gets all the media attention, flex-regs quietly do the heavy lifting. A decade ago, I helped design British Columbia’s mix of a carbon tax and flex-regs. One flex-reg caused BC Hydro to cancel intended coal and natural gas plants and instead develop low-carbon options from competitive bids. This flex-reg is three times more effective than B.C.’s carbon tax, and it faced no opposition. Last week, the B.C. government copied Quebec in implementing a zero-emission vehicle standard, a flex-reg to eliminate the purchase of gasoline vehicles by 2040.<o:p></o:p></div>
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The California Air Resources Board acknowledges that California’s carbon-pricing policy, which Quebec shares and Ontario did briefly, accounts for only 15 per cent of recent and projected emission reductions in California. Again, the key policies are flex-regs, namely electricity’s renewable portfolio standard and transportation’s low carbon-fuel standard and zero-emission vehicle standard.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Pollsters say Alberta Premier Rachel Notley’s carbon tax contributes significantly to her dim re-election prospects. Ironically, my research team finds the new tax will cause no more than 5 per cent of her climate plan’s projected reductions. The heavy lifting is from her coal-plant phase-out, methane regulations, a pre-existing flex-reg on large industries, and a cap on oil sands emissions. I’ll bet she wishes an economist had told her she didn’t need the tax, and that it does almost nothing anyway.<o:p></o:p></div>
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According to analysis by my research team, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s court-challenged carbon tax contributes 15 per cent of his climate plan’s reductions. He can easily replace it by tightening the stringency of his planned clean fuel standard, a flex-reg that applies to the same fuels as the carbon price. I’ll bet he wishes an economist had told him that, as I tried to in an article in <i>Policy Options</i> magazine shortly after his election.<o:p></o:p></div>
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But if carbon pricing is doing little to decarbonize the economy, why does it get all the attention? The reason is obvious to political scientists.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Surveys have long shown that taxes are a toxic issue for some voters. Unless it is an obvious tax cut, any other tax change for societal benefit can easily be framed by opponents as economically harmful. A politician proposing carbon pricing presents an irresistible target, especially if political opponents only need to swing 5 per cent of voters in key suburban ridings for electoral success.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Even if most voters support carbon pricing, this doesn’t matter in our first-past-the-post electoral system. What matters is small success with misinformation campaigns claiming that carbon taxes hurt middle-class suburbanites and rural residents. Some will believe it, and even if government returns carbon-tax revenue as tax cuts or dividend payments, some of these voters will still accept the untruths that carbon pricing is personally punitive.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Thus, a carbon tax puts a bulls-eye on a politician’s back, making it easier for opponents to promise to axe the tax and replace it with ineffective policies they untruthfully claim will cause decarbonization. They might even hint at regulations, without giving a timeline.<o:p></o:p></div>
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In 2008, then-Liberal leader Stéphane Dion asked to meet with me to discuss his plan to campaign on a carbon tax. I told him this was good policy, but bad politics, and that it would cost him the election. He did it anyway. Sure enough, Stephen Harper focused his campaign on “job-killing carbon taxes.” Mr. Harper’s victory ensured a lost decade of faking-it climate policies.<o:p></o:p></div>
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This time last year, I gave talks in France at the invitation of some academics trying to warn President Emmanuel Macron’s advisers that relying on carbon taxes would be a political disaster, stalling rather than advancing decarbonization. Unfortunately, their warning went unheeded, and now the violent<i> gilets jaune</i> protests in Paris have forced Mr. Macron to backpedal on the plan.<o:p></o:p></div>
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As long as we economists tell politicians they must price carbon, instead of admitting that flex-regs and other mechanisms can do it all, humanity will continue to flounder in the face of the decarbonization challenge. Sincere politicians cannot use carbon pricing as their lead policy. Even modest pricing efforts can help elect insincere politicians. But fortunately, we don’t need to price carbon. </div>
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When allocating blame for humanity’s inaction on climate, it’s time for us economists to look in the mirror – instead of convincing our students what great politicians we would have been.<o:p></o:p></div>
Mark Jaccardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18436507359062754635noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8673054424836004065.post-31920776584195567222018-04-30T19:43:00.001-07:002018-05-01T08:37:09.370-07:00Canadian Carbon Pricing Confusions<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">The federal government (Environment and Climate Change Canada - ECCC) released on April 30, 2018 its estimate of the incremental effect of its carbon pricing initiative relative to other policies in achieving Canada’s GHG reductions – <b><a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/climate-action/pricing-carbon-pollution/estimated-impacts-federal-system.html" target="_blank">Estimated Results of the Federal Carbon Pollution Pricing System</a></b>. They estimate annual reductions in 2022 of 80-90 mega-tonnes (MT) of CO2. Their numbers are dramatically higher than estimates by my research team. Why?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">The approach we took to estimate the incremental effect of federal emissions pricing<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">At about the time the Trudeau government announced that emissions pricing would be “central” to achieving its GHG reduction targets, it also announced specific regulatory policies, including nation-wide adoption of Alberta’s coal plant phase-out and methane regulations, tightening of vehicle regulations, and (a bit later) a clean fuel standard, which is similar to BC’s low carbon fuel standard but applied to all sectors not just transport. To assess the incremental effect of the federal carbon pricing policy, we created a reference scenario which included everything that should happen absent the federal pricing initiative. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Thus, our reference scenario included all carbon pricing and regulatory policies of the provinces and simulated their effect on emissions between 2018 and 2030. BC and Alberta had both committed to $30 /tCO2 for carbon pricing while Ontario and Quebec had committed to a price that climbs toward $20 and surpasses that threshold well before 2030. All four provinces had existing and announced regulations, such as Alberta’s announced cap on oil sands emissions, methane regulations, and coal-plant phase-out by 2030, and BC’s clean electricity standard and low carbon fuel standard. We included regulations by other provinces too, such as the electricity decarbonization policy in Nova Scotia. To these we added the existing and announced federal regulations. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">We sustained all of these provincial and federal policies through to 2030, which gave us a forecast of the evolution of Canadian emissions if Trudeau’s government had avoided carbon pricing as a policy and instead relied on existing provincial policies (pricing and regulation) and its own announced regulations. This reference scenario (without the federal pricing initiative) sees Canadian emissions fall approximately 6% from their 2005 level.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">To this reference scenario, developed in early 2016, we later added the federal carbon pricing policy, which reaches $50 /tCO2 by 2022. We assumed, in the absence of a schedule beyond 2022, that the carbon price would remain constant after that. Not surprisingly, the incremental effect of the federal carbon pricing policy is very small by 2030 and even smaller by 2022. I’m getting my research associate to dig out the exact numbers for these two dates. (She now does modeling for the International Energy Agency in Paris and is awfully busy!). But my eyeball guess looking at our graphs is that the incremental effect of the federal carbon pricing policy is to reduce emissions 1-2% from their 2005 level, a reduction of 10-15 MT in 2030. That number should be smaller in 2022, far below the claim of 80-90 MT in the latest ECCC report.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">The federal approach to estimate 80-90 MT of reductions from pricing by 2022.<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">In reading the report, I see two possible causes for the discrepancy between our estimate of a low incremental contribution from the federal carbon pricing initiative and the high estimate in this latest federal report. The first cause is that the federal government estimate takes credit for all pre-existing carbon pricing initiatives of the provinces. The second cause, more speculative on my part, is that they may not have done proper incremental policy modeling, meaning that the federal carbon pricing got recognition for emission reductions that should be attributed to non-pricing policies.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Page 3 of the report helps explain the first cause of the discrepancy. The estimated 80-90 MT attributed to federal carbon pricing is based on the assumption that there never have been provincial emissions pricing policies in Alberta, BC, Ontario and Quebec. The carbon pricing policy is “compared to a hypothetical scenario in which they [provincial governments] did not have pricing systems in place.” (p.3) In other words, the reference scenario for estimating the federal carbon pricing initiative is a hypothetical world in which there is no carbon pricing anywhere in Canada. Which of course is not true.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">This is clearly not an accurate way to represent the incremental effect of the carbon pricing initiative of the federal government. While it makes a lot of sense to have better federal coordination and consistency of climate policies across the country, and the federal backstop carbon price does that, it is nonetheless grossly misleading to suggest that current provincial pricing can be attributable to federal policy any more than that the phase-out of coal plants in Ontario in 2004-2014, the policy-driven cancellation of coal plants in BC in 2007, and Alberta’s announced phase-out of coal plants in 2015, can be attributed to the federal coal plant policy announced in 2016.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">While this is likely to be the dominant cause of the discrepancy in our estimates, I also could not find an explanation in the report of the method the federal policy modelers used to estimate the incremental effect of the federal carbon pricing initiative and federal regulations. As I noted above, this entails first simulating all of the provincial and federal non-carbon pricing policies and the provincial pricing policies to 2022 and 2030. And then to run a second simulation with only the addition of the federal carbon pricing initiative. The change in emissions between these two simulations indicates the incremental contribution of that policy. This contribution of the federal carbon pricing policy will be very small, as we found with our modeling research. But you actually don’t need a model to see what is obvious by surveying the portfolio of provincial and federal regulatory policies, past and present.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Take-Away<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">In 2016 I and two research associates produced a report entitled<a href="http://rem-main.rem.sfu.ca/papers/jaccard/Jaccard-Hein-Vass%20CdnClimatePol%20EMRG-REM-SFU%20Sep%2020%202016.pdf" target="_blank"> <b>Is Win-Win Possible? Can Canada’s Government Achieve Its Paris Commitment . . . and Get Re-Elected?</b></a><b> </b>In which we explained that a rapidly rising carbon emissions price was needed to achieve the Paris commitment. We noted that while all climate policies are politically difficult, there is considerable evidence from real-world GHG policy experience and political science surveys to suggest that carbon pricing is far more politically challenging than some regulatory policies. We also noted that flexible regulations can be designed to approach carbon pricing in economic efficiency, if designed with that purpose in mind.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Some economists, including some at Canada’s carbon pricing advocacy entity, the Ecofiscal Commission, dismissed our assessment. They presented studies constructed to show a deliberately big economic efficiency gap between regulations and carbon pricing, instead of testing the likely long-run cost of using flexible regulations like the low carbon fuel standard over several decades to decarbonize transport. And they dismissed as naïve any research showing the visceral antagonism to pricing policies by significant segments of the population – and therefore the risks to politicians of relying on such policies. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">None seemed willing to even discuss the importance of comparing GHG policies using a criterion such as political cost per tonne reduced in order to compare this to economic cost per tonne reduced. This is unfortunate, because research by ourselves and others shows that carbon pricing has an enormous political cost per tonne in comparison to flexible regulations. This helps explain why many of these flexible regulations have played a much bigger role in GHG emission reductions thus far in Canada, California and Europe, including Scandinavia where there has been some form of carbon pricing for years.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">A decade ago, Canada had a federal election dominated by the issue of carbon pricing. Voter rejection of carbon pricing enabled Stephen Harper to defeat Stephan Dion and win power for a decade, a decade in which he deliberately stalled on implementing effective GHG reducing policies. That was not an economically efficient outcome.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Because carbon pricing advocates have convinced the Trudeau government to take a large political risk for only a small incremental GHG reduction, history may soon repeat. Studies that are distorted to show an artificially large reduction from the federal pricing initiative are not going to save the day. Trudeau may win re-election and sustain the federal carbon pricing. But if so, this will occur in spite of carbon pricing, not because of it. One must ask if the risk is worth it, especially when the impacts of coal-plant phase out, methane regulations, and a clean fuel standard (that fairly efficiently decarbonizes transport) dominate our GHG reductions and yet are much less difficult politically – as polling continuously shows.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Ironically, our incremental modeling of various GHG reduction policies in Alberta shows a similar outcome. We estimate the incremental effect of Alberta’s carbon pricing policy (at its stringency level of $30 and different application in various economic sectors) is less than 5% of the GHG reductions caused by the other regulatory policies (excluding subsidy policies) in its Climate Leadership Plan. The vast majority of reductions are caused, again, by the coal plant phase-out, the methane regulation, the oil sands emissions cap (which varies depending on forecasts of future oil sands output), and various efficiency regulations. Yet some polls suggest that while the Notley government’s popularity is little affected by its introduction of regulations (most Albertans support coal plant phase-out), it has been greatly affected by the strong and ongoing opposition to her carbon tax.</span><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Mark Jaccardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18436507359062754635noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8673054424836004065.post-43510811175812745302016-10-11T15:43:00.001-07:002016-10-11T15:57:49.257-07:00Climate policy advisers need to take into account the real world trade-off between economic efficiency and political acceptability<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; line-height: normal;">Here is my <a href="http://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/october-2016/penny-wise-and-pound-foolish-on-climate-policy/" target="_blank">response</a> to fellow economists who seem unwilling to take into account this trade-off when giving climate policy advice. It appeared in Policy Options on October 11, 2016. The text is also given below:</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-position: normal; line-height: normal;"><br /></span>Last week, the House of Commons endorsed the Paris climate agreement, under which Canada commits to reduce greenhouse gases by 30 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. Simultaneously, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau abandoned hope that each province would voluntarily implement policies to achieve the national target. He said the federal government would, if necessary, impose a national charge of $10 per tonne of carbon dioxide in 2018, rising to $50 by 2022. After a year of niceties, <em style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">realpolitik</em>has arrived.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br />It is encouraging that Canadian governments increasingly acknowledge that effective climate policy requires a carbon price or equivalent regulations to reduce our use of coal, oil and natural gas. But this does not make the task easier. In September, I and my co-researchers Tiffany Vass and Mikela Hein <a href="http://rem-main.rem.sfu.ca/papers/jaccard/Jaccard-Hein-Vass%20CdnClimatePol%20EMRG-REM-SFU%20Sep%2020%202016.pdf" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">released a report</a> in which we estimate that Canada’s carbon price must reach $200 by 2030, if it is to be the dominant policy for achieving the Paris target. (This week we analyzed Trudeau’s proposed carbon price. If the price remained at $50 from 2022 to 2030, emissions would fall 12 percent. If it rose to $100 by 2030, they would fall by 17 percent.) </span><br />
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Relying entirely on emissions-pricing to reach our targets is a tough sell, because a $200 carbon price would increase the price of gasoline 45 cents per litre in just over a decade. Many people won’t grasp that as they switch to already-available electric, plug-in hybrid and biofuel vehicles, they will not be paying the high carbon price. And while economic impacts can be minimized if the government returns carbon revenues through income tax cuts, many people won’t see the correlation. Hence the political challenge.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br />This explains why, in our September report, we suggested that economists could help real-world climate policy implementation if they analyzed the costs of other policies that have successfully reduced emissions, especially the flexible regulations that have been dominant in activist jurisdictions like California. But in <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-commentary/carbon-price-vs-regulations-the-better-choice-is-clear/article32243927/" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">a recent article</a>, members of Canada’s Ecofiscal Commission Don Drummond, Nancy Olewiler and Chris Ragan rejected our proposal.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br />First, they claimed that I and my colleagues don’t see the higher costs associated with carbon emissions regulations “as much of a problem.” This misrepresents our challenge to economists to estimate how flexible regulations like clean electricity standards, low carbon fuel standards and vehicle emission standards — compared with carbon pricing — will hurt the economy. If the economic penalty is small, flexible regulations should be considered where they have a much higher chance of being politically acceptable. Former Liberal leader Stéphane Dion’s failed electoral bid, which was based on a carbon tax, ensured a decade of climate inaction by former prime minister Stephen Harper. If we agree that a continued failure to act on climate will have a large cost, then not incorporating political acceptability into the policy calculus is penny wise and pound foolish.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br />Second, they argued that carbon pricing is now politically acceptable. But academic surveys and real-world evidence show the opposite. Carbon prices are everywhere still at such low levels that their effect in places like California, British Columbia, Quebec, and Ontario is negligible relative to regulatory actions that have also been introduced in those jurisdictions. Flexible regulations are projected to account for 90 percent of California’s reductions between 2005 and 2025.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br />Third, they argued that everyone can see the benefits of using carbon revenues to lower income taxes. Stating unequivocally, and without evidence, that “nobody should believe the claims of political infeasibility,” they explain that whenever the public complains that carbon taxes are too high, an easy solution is to explain that income taxes will go down.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br />Maybe this works with the students in their economics classes, but it certainly didn’t work for Stéphane Dion, and nor did it work for former BC premier Gordon Campbell, whose supposedly revenue-neutral carbon tax is the poster child for emissions-pricing. Government, climate activists, business leaders, and academics like Nancy Olewiler and myself made this case for revenue neutrality via income tax cuts repeatedly in the 2008-09 BC climate debate, to no effect. During the opposition’s “axe the tax” campaign, Campbell’s government dropped 20 points in the polls and would have lost the 2009 election, but it was saved by the bell when the global recession and resulting collapse in oil prices shifted voter concerns from gasoline to jobs. In a recent survey on the public’s relative views on climate policies in BC, I and co-researchers Katya Rhodes and Jonn Axsen <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378014001460" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">found that</a> strong opposition to the carbon tax was 7 to 10 times greater than strong opposition to flexible regulations.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br />We repeat our appeal that economists learn from other social sciences. Effective climate policies are politically difficult. Being unwilling to consider trade-offs that are at the margin between purist economic efficiency and political acceptability is to risk continuing along the path of climate inaction, which itself is economically inefficient.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arialmt"; line-height: normal;"></span>Mark Jaccardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18436507359062754635noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8673054424836004065.post-11929933313626881072016-09-20T06:40:00.000-07:002016-09-20T06:40:16.116-07:00Is Win-Win Possible? Can Canada’s Government Achieve Its Paris Commitment . . . and Get Re-elected?<span style="font-family: "helvetica"; font-size: 14px;">For the past 6 months, I and co-researchers Mikela Hein and Tiffany Vass have been developing our national energy-economy model (CIMS) to simulate climate policy scenarios that explore the effect of current Canadian policies, and contrast this with (1) the must-price-emissions approach that some are advocating, and (2) an alternative approach that emphasizes a significant role for flexible regulations, similar to what California is doing with regulations on electricity, vehicles, fuels, etc. Available on <a href="http://rem-main.rem.sfu.ca/papers/jaccard/Jaccard-Hein-Vass%20CdnClimatePol%20EMRG-REM-SFU%20Sep%2020%202016.pdf" target="_blank">this link</a>, our report is called <a href="http://rem-main.rem.sfu.ca/papers/jaccard/Jaccard-Hein-Vass%20CdnClimatePol%20EMRG-REM-SFU%20Sep%2020%202016.pdf" target="_blank">“Is Win-Win Possible? Can Canada’s Government Achieve Its Paris Commitment . . . and Get Re-elected?"</a></span><br />
<br style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 14px;" />
<span style="font-family: "helvetica"; font-size: 14px;">If policy advisors and policy makers are to learn anything from the past 30 years of ineffective climate policies, they would hopefully see that climate policy is very difficult politically and emissions pricing is especially difficult. Canada intends to achieve its Paris commitment. To do so by emphasizing emissions pricing would require a price that climbs by about $15 per year to reach $200 per tonne of CO2 by 2030. It is highly unlikely that federal or provincial politicians will pursue this approach. Fortunately, they don’t have to. As noted, California is especially relying on flexible regulations. Such an approach is likely to be less economically efficient than emissions pricing. But researchers can help policy makers by estimating the magnitude of the economic efficiency trade-off for political acceptance. Our report attempts to start that process.</span>Mark Jaccardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18436507359062754635noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8673054424836004065.post-36413562284054894302016-08-22T13:10:00.003-07:002016-08-22T13:11:20.149-07:00BC’s ‘New’ Climate Plan Scales Olympian Heights of Political Cynicism<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
This blog was first published as an <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/bcs-climate-plan-reaches-olympian-heights-of-political-cynicism/article31464244/" target="_blank">Op-Ed piece in The Globe and Mail </a>Aug. 21, 2016</div>
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In 30 years of evaluating
government climate plans, I have learned to classify them into three categories:
somewhat effective, naively ineffective and cynically ineffective. BC’s new
climate plan fits perfectly into one of these categories. Can you guess which?</div>
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<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-CA;">Let me help. The thing
about ‘effective’ climate policy is that it is never a political winner.
Effective policies would start immediately to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by
either pricing these or regulating fuels and technologies. The price can be
achieved by a carbon tax, as in BC and Alberta, or an emissions cap with
tradable permits, as in Ontario and Quebec. Alternatively, regulations, which dominate
in California, would require a growing market share for zero-emission vehicles,
furnaces, electricity generation, and industrial equipment. In every case, the
stringency of these effective policies must be increasing – a rising carbon
tax, a falling emissions cap, tightening regulations. Everything else is bogus.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-CA;">Politicians know that effective
climate policy is not a political winner because these effective policies cause
gasoline prices to rise immediately, while the benefits from slowing climate
change and sea level rise occur after the politician’s career is over. Only a politician
willing to show ethical leadership would take effective action on this
difficult global challenge. Politicians who are not leaders but seem to care
would gravitate to ineffective policies. Politicians who are cynical and don’t
care would deliberately fake it, implementing a long list of ineffective
policies, engaging in endless ‘public consultation’ and dismantling the
effective policies implemented by previous climate leaders.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-CA;">Which brings us to BC
Premier Christy Clark and her new climate plan. From 2007 to 2011, her
predecessor, Gordon Campbell, led the world in implementing effective climate
policies, out-muscling even Arnold Schwarzenegger’s efforts in California. He
banned the use of coal and natural gas to generate electricity. He implemented
a rising carbon tax. He established the legislative framework for an emissions
cap, and for tightening regulations on fuels, vehicles, buildings and equipment.
He not only set a climate target for 2020, but also interim targets for 2012
and 2016 to enable real-time monitoring of the effectiveness of his efforts.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-CA;">But when Clark
replaced Campbell in 2011, one of her first acts was to freeze the tax at its
2012 level. Because of inflation, this means the tax has been declining in real
value for the last four years. She also undermined his zero-emission
electricity requirement and his emissions-cap legislation, and she has done
nothing to tighten any of his other regulations. At the same time, she has
vigorously promoted expansion of the natural gas industry which, if successful,
would dramatically increase emissions. And last year, she launched yet another
public consultation. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-CA;">In refusing to serve
on her consultative panel, I pointed out that this was the last thing BC needed,
and that anyone joining the panel was legitimizing a strategy of inaction. In
BC, we already had effective policies, and Clark would know from her advisors
that only by increasing their stringency would emissions fall. But endless public
consultation is a convenient way of appearing to care without taking action.
And the panel did not help by naively calling for an increase in the carbon tax.
This played directly into Clark’s populist posture as defender of overtaxed car
and truck drivers, and was unnecessary, as California’s smart regulations have
proven.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-CA;">Last week, Clark finally
released her climate policy. Predictably, it perfectly fits the ‘cynically
ineffective’ category. First, there is no immediate tightening of the
stringency of any effective policies to achieve emissions targets in, say, 2020
and 2025. Second, consistent with the cynical category, the plan includes a
list of innocuous policies that are known to be ineffective – subsidies to
industry to electrify some processes, information programs for consumers, and
statements about the government’s good intentions. And taking cynicism to a new
level, the plan’s so-called emissions reductions are dominated by tree planting
on lands that are already allocated to forestry, an action that does not
decrease emissions in the long run.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-CA;">If there were an
Olympic event for political cynicism on the climate challenge, BC’s new climate
plan would be a strong contender for the gold medal.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Mark Jaccardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18436507359062754635noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8673054424836004065.post-38166058042471830712016-03-14T09:41:00.000-07:002016-03-14T09:42:02.554-07:00My interview in "Building a consensus on climate change? Not so easy, after all" in Macleans<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">Here
is the link to <span style="color: #420178;">an article by John Geddes</span> "<a href="http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/building-a-consensus-on-climate-change-not-so-easy-after-all/" target="_blank">Building a consensus on climate change? Not so easy, after all"</a>, Ottawa bureau chief at Maclean’s, who does a
good job of distilling my point that while carbon pricing is the most
economically efficient GHG reduction policy, it is willful blindness to assume
that economic efficiency is the only criterion when trying to implement climate
policy. If regulations are more politically acceptable, especially for doing
the heavy lifting, then put some intelligence (even economic intelligence) into
designing market-oriented regulations that are relatively economically
efficient. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">One might notice by the way, that in the
first two weeks of March Trudeau failed to get provinces to agree to even a
small carbon price (that would have virtually no effect on emissions - such as
$15 or $30 per tonne of CO2)) and then went to Washington and quickly signed an
agreement with Obama to dramatically reduce methane emissions from the oil and
gas industry. No mention of emissions pricing. It will be
regulation." </span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Mark Jaccardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18436507359062754635noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8673054424836004065.post-91926879667041196152016-03-14T09:28:00.000-07:002016-03-14T09:29:53.973-07:00The Paris climate summit<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #1a1a1a; mso-bidi-font-family: Georgia; mso-bidi-font-size: 15.0pt;">This article appeared
in <a href="http://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/november-2015/theparisclimatesummit/"><span style="color: #0000e3; text-decoration: none;">Policy Options</span></a>
in November 2015.<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-family: PlayfairDisplay-Regular;">The Paris climate summit<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #343434; mso-bidi-font-family: PlayfairDisplay-Regular;">Canada has consistently failed to deliver, but it’s not too late
for us to make a major contribution at the climate summit in Paris.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #535353; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">The other day I heard an environmental advocate argue that Prime
Minister Justin Trudeau needed to make an ambitious commitment at the UN Paris
climate summit (COP 21) to atone for all the “climate fossil” awards won by our
previous prime minister. I’m not so sure.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #535353; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Remember when newly elected President Barack Obama won the Nobel
Peace Prize? He hadn’t yet done anything. Apparently the Nobel committee
bestowed the award simply because he was not George W. Bush. In the same vein,
Trudeau will be welcomed because he is not Stephen Harper.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #535353; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">I am not saying, of course, that Trudeau should just go to Paris
and smile. But to make a real contribution, he will need to be brutally honest
about why UN negotiations have failed for over two decades and equally honest
about why Canada’s emission reduction efforts have also continuously failed.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<a name='more'></a><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #535353; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">For a start, politicians like Trudeau must see past the “fossil
fuels are evil” rhetoric of some environmentalists. The reality is that coal,
oil and natural gas are fantastic forms of energy that have played a critical
role in improving humanity’s material conditions over the past two centuries, a
period that has seen a doubling of human lifespans in wealthy countries.
Politicians from developing countries know about the wonders of fossil fuels.
How can they not, after witnessing China’s remarkable transformation from one
of the world’s poorest countries to an economic powerhouse in just two decades?
From 1990 to 2010, its economy and its coal consumption grew apace at close to
10 percent a year. As a result, its CO2 emissions grew almost as fast, making
it the world’s largest emitter.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #535353; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Trudeau must also grasp that reducing greenhouse gas emissions,
especially CO2 from burning fossil fuels, is what policy analysts call a
“global public good.” Within national boundaries, citizens pay for public goods
like roads and national defence by sharing the cost through tax contributions
to government. People don’t agree how much tax each should pay (rich versus
middle class, corporations versus individuals), so government decides. If we
had a global government, it would determine what each country should contribute
to the cost of preventing climate change, with a binding mechanism to ensure
compliance. But we don’t have a global government. So almost 200 countries try
to agree on the contribution of each and on the compliance mechanism to ensure that
contribution. They’ve been unable to agree for over 20 years. They’re unlikely
to agree at Paris.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #535353; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">The main reason they cannot agree is that countries, like
individuals, have a self-interest bias when viewing evidence related to
fairness. Richer countries say they are willing to give a “fair” level of
assistance to poorer countries, such as India, to avoid China’s CO2-intensive
development path, thereby foregoing unrestrained fossil fuel combustion in
favour of hydro, solar, wind, biofuels, nuclear and fossil fuels (if capturing
the CO2). But their idea of a fair level of assistance is dramatically lower
than what poor countries think it should be. So poor countries are unwilling to
accept binding reductions.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #535353; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">These differing perceptions of fairness have plagued climate
negotiations. At Copenhagen, in 2009, all countries agreed that humanity should
limit global CO2 emissions so that the average temperature would increase no
more than 2</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #535353; font-family: "myriad pro semibold"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Myriad Pro Semibold";">⁰</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #535353; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">C, a level
beyond which scientists fear we may pass tipping points that lead to
uncontrolled changes and horrific damages. But politicians at Copenhagen could
not agree on how to parse the global limit into emission limits for individual
countries. So they punted this decision to this year’s Paris meeting — another
way of saying “let future politicians figure this out, because we sure can’t.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #535353; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">In the run-up to Paris, each country was asked to volunteer a
target for its own emissions in 2030, what are referred to as “intended
nationally determined contributions” or “INDCs.” (Each COP seems to create
fresh terminology for old concepts. In this case, an INDC previously was a
“voluntary commitment” or a “nonbinding emission target.”) Over 150 countries
have set INDCs. Not surprisingly, however, analysis of these shows that even if
all countries achieved their target, the resulting emissions path would rocket
past the 2</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #535353; font-family: "myriad pro semibold"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Myriad Pro Semibold";">⁰</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #535353; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">C limit.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #535353; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">So there is the conundrum.
Countries are willing to set nonbinding emission targets. But these targets
fail to meet our 2</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #535353; font-family: "myriad pro semibold"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Myriad Pro Semibold";">⁰</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #535353; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">C climate
objective. Developing countries might be willing to tighten their targets if
developed countries paid their costs of foregoing fossil fuels. But so far the
amount on offer is not close to what developing countries say they require.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #535353; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">So what is likely at Paris? And what can Canada contribute?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #535353; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Continued stalemate that fails to achieve 2</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #535353; font-family: "myriad pro semibold"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Myriad Pro Semibold";">⁰</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #535353; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">C is one possible outcome, although this might be dressed up to
appear like a success. This dress-up could include patting developing countries
on the back for their first INDCs, substantial funding commitments from
wealthier countries to help them deflect slightly from the fossil-fuel path,
and a hopeful-sounding concluding document that talks about future processes
for reviewing and tightening the INDCs of developed and developing countries.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #535353; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">A more promising outcome might already achieve some tightening
and co-ordination of the INDCs of wealthier countries — perhaps through
agreement on a minimum carbon price that each country should apply domestically
— and an agreement by developing countries to tighten their INDCs in order to
receive substantial (but still not sufficient in their eyes) financial
transfers from wealthier countries. The sum of the combined INDCs of all
countries might still exceed the 2</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #535353; font-family: "myriad pro semibold"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Myriad Pro Semibold";">⁰</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #535353; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">C path, but it
would represent enough of a game-changer that the Paris negotiators could
legitimately claim some success.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #535353; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">This may sound promising. But how can we be sure that it truly
represents a game-changer in the global climate effort? In particular, do the
INDCs really indicate what each country’s emissions will be in 2030?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #535353; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">This is where Canada can make a contribution. The reason, sadly,
is that our prime ministers have been making INDC-type commitments for almost
30 years — with complete failure. We’re experts at setting voluntary targets
and failing to achieve them. So we should be experts at spotting others who try
the same thing.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #535353; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">In the late 1980s, Brian Mulroney set a voluntary target for
Canadian emissions in 2000. We missed it by a country mile. But by then
Mulroney was long gone. In 1997, at Kyoto, Jean Chrétien set a voluntary target
for 2010 emissions. He too was long gone when we blew that target. Then, in
2007, Harper set a voluntary target for 2020. He too won’t be around for the
day of reckoning, but the Auditor General already noted in 2013 that we won’t
achieve his target (or even his 2009 revised softer target for 2020). One of
Harper’s last acts was to set our INDC target for 2030 earlier this year (a 30
percent reduction from 2005 levels). Amazingly, he kept a straight face when
making the announcement.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #535353; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Unfortunately, it gets worse. Not only did we set INDC-type
targets, we actually implemented major policy initiatives that were promised to
achieve the targets. The big challenge was to give each new initiative a unique
name; hence, the Green Plan (1990), the National Action Program (1995), Action
Plan 2000, the Climate Change Plan for Canada (2002), Project Green (2005),
EcoEnergy (2007) and Turning the Corner (2008). Once he got a majority in 2011,
Harper dispensed with the farce of creating new climate initiatives, although
he saw no need to admit that his targets were fiction as they were for a future
date probably beyond his political shelf-life. Like his predecessors, he was
certainly right about the timing.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #535353; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">People who assess energy-economy policies, like me and my
colleagues around the world, agree on why every single one of Canada’s policy
initiatives failed. Information and incitation campaigns, labels on fridges and
cars, a few subsidies to energy efficiency and wind turbines, and a host of
Rick Mercer commercials will not really reduce emissions. The only policies
that reduce emissions are: (1) a rising carbon tax, or (2) a declining hard
emissions cap (probably with tradable permits), or (3) increasingly stringent
regulations on emission-causing technologies and fuels, or (4) some combination
of these three types of “compulsory policies.” This is all that is needed.
Everything else is fluff, including government spending programs.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #535353; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">If anything good is to come from Canada’s three-decade
climate-policy charade it is the lesson that voluntary INDC-type targets are
delusional unless intimately tied to one or two of the three compulsory
policies listed above, and independent experts confirm that their level of
stringency ensures achievement of the target. Canada needs to insist at Paris
on the establishment of an independent policy review mechanism that reports
annually on the likely achievement of each country’s INDC, given the policies
that country is implementing. This would be a substantial contribution.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #535353; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Trudeau should also tell
the world that a reformed Canada now intends to be a model for effective
climate policy that achieves targets. This won’t mean a lot at this stage,
since people know about our track record. But the global climate effort is a
long-run project. If Canada produces domestic climate policy that, by design,
is guaranteed to achieve its 2030 target, this will garner a lot of weight in
the years to come. Although Stephen Harper made it sound difficult to hit a
national emissions target, it isn’t. You simply mandate a national cap on
emissions that equals the 2030 target. Then you roll up your sleeves and
allocate the cap among provinces or economic sectors, including a mechanism to
ensure regional fairness in hitting the cap. Finally, but most importantly, you
delegate the task of monitoring and review to an arms-length, highly visible
oversight institution, like the Auditor General, and perhaps delegate some
regulatory authority to ensure government achieves its legislated commitments,
as California does with its Environmental Protection Agency. (I will elaborate
in a subsequent article focused on domestic climate policies.)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #535353; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">While this focus on mechanisms for determining whether domestic
policies will achieve the INDC promises would be an important contribution by
Canada at Paris, it is not sufficient. Canada should also argue for
international mechanisms and actions that are realistic — as I noted at the
outset — in view of the attractiveness of fossil fuels and the
global-public-good nature of the challenge. Just as our domestic climate policy
must strongly incentivize the use of technologies and fuels that do not emit
CO2, the same is required of the global climate policy mechanisms issuing from
Paris.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #535353; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Thus, Trudeau should push at Paris for the creation of a
transparent policy review process that provides an annual report card on the
effectiveness of each country’s climate policies. And he should insist on a
direct link between that policy performance and the slate of financial
incentives offered by the international community. For example, funding support
for developing countries should be tied to the effectiveness of their domestic
climate policies, as indicated by their annual report card. And countries with
failing grades — whether developed or developing — should be threatened with
and eventually subject to trade measures, such as higher tariffs on their
goods. Some people don’t want to talk about trade measures. But those who are
serious about an effective global effort know that we cannot avoid this
discussion. Indeed, the Waxman-Markey clean energy bill, which was passed by
the United States House of Representatives in 2009 but not the Senate, included
a mechanism to increase the effective tariff on imports from countries whose
climate policies lacked the stringency of the US policy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #535353; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Finally, while supporting the effort in Paris for comprehensive
international mechanisms that apply to all countries, Trudeau should recognize
the value of separate bilateral and multilateral agreements between
jurisdictions willing to show real climate policy leadership. These “clubs” can
provide models that other countries might one day emulate or join. In 2005, the
Europeans constructed an emissions cap-and-trade system for industry. While
naysayers denigrate this policy, it is working fine and will be tightened
rather than eliminated as new European countries join. And thanks to Quebec
joining California’s cap-and-trade in 2014, and Ontario about to join next
year, Canada has a golden opportunity to extend this system nationally, uniting
35 million Canadians with 35 million Californians in a cross-border
cap-and-trade system applied to virtually all fossil-fuel-related greenhouse
gas emissions. This 70 million-strong club could be a significant force for
change — and other American states could well join.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #535353; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">You may notice that I have
omitted one issue. I have not discussed the specific target Trudeau should
commit to at Paris. Hopefully my reason for this omission is obvious. While the
target should of course be achievable, it’s the policies that count. That
message is the most valuable contribution Canada can make at Paris.</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Mark Jaccardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18436507359062754635noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8673054424836004065.post-72451666215764719772016-03-14T09:11:00.001-07:002016-03-14T09:15:21.592-07:00Want an effective climate policy? Heed the evidence<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">This article appeared in <a href="http://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/february-2016/want-an-effective-climatepolicy-heed-the-evidence/"><span style="color: #0000e9;">Policy Options</span></a> in February 2016.<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">Want an effective climate policy? Heed the
evidence<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">Carbon taxes and caps may be most
effective in economic theory, but smart regulation will produce better climate
policy for our political reality.<b><o:p></o:p></b></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">Wisely,
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resisted the temptation at the Paris climate
summit in December to double down on Stephen Harper’s 2030 target for Canadian
carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. While future emissions promises are easily
made, effective climate policy is devilishly difficult. To have any chance,
Trudeau needs to stay wise — which starts by avoiding advice from technology
and policy advocates who themselves avoid inconvenient evidence from leading
climate policy research and real-world experience. What does this evidence tell
us?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">For
one thing, it’s a mistake to expect a big contribution from energy efficiency.
For three decades, governments and utilities have made efficiency the focus of
their emissions reduction efforts, with negligible results. Yes, energy
efficiency is always improving, and we can slightly accelerate that trend. But
humans require energy for basic needs and, more important, we keep inventing
frivolous devices that use more. (Need evidence? Stroll through your local
big-box store.)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<a name='more'></a><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">The
reality is that significant emissions reductions will happen only if we rapidly
switch to zero- and partially-zero-emissions technologies. Fortunately, these
are now commercially available. But they won’t be widely adopted unless
technologies that burn coal, oil and natural gas are phased out by regulations
or made costly to operate by carbon pricing. The latter can be either a carbon
tax, as in British Columbia, or the price of tradable CO2 permits under an
emissions cap, as in Quebec.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">Most
important of all, Trudeau must understand that relying solely on one of these
two forms of carbon pricing to achieve even the seemingly modest Harper target
may cost him his job. While carbon pricing has become a mantra for economists,
environmentalists, academics, celebrities, media pundits and even corporate
heads, none of these people needs to get reelected. For politicians with
survival instincts, it’s a different game.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">Canadian
politicians have been contemplating, but then delaying or watering down, carbon
pricing since 1989. I know, because in that year, as a newly minted energy
economist at Simon Fraser University, I helped with Canada’s initial assessment
of carbon pricing for Brian Mulroney’s government. As soon as we calculated the
required increase in the price of gasoline, he balked. And so has every
subsequent Canadian politician, with the partial exception of BC Premier Gordon
Campbell. In 2007, Campbell launched a tax of $10 per tonne of CO2, and he
legislated $5 annual increases for the next four years, with the tax reaching
$30 in 2012. My research group did the analysis for him. Campbell expected to
keep increasing the tax after 2012. But he was forced to step down in 2011, and
his replacement, Christy Clark, froze the tax. Stuck at $30, it adds 7 cents
per litre to the price of gasoline, which is a sixth of the increase likely
needed to motivate car and truck purchasers to choose electric or biofuel
options.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">Today,
a decade later, no provincial politician intends to significantly surpass BC’s
$30 carbon price. Alberta says it will match it in 2018, followed by tiny
annual increases (assuming the government survives). Quebec’s carbon price is
$15 and is not slated to reach $30 for at least a decade. Ontario intends to
match Quebec. And in all of these carbon pricing systems, there are partial
exemptions for emissions-intensive, export-oriented industries, like the oil
sands.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">Analysis
by my research group finds that in order to achieve the 2030 Harper target, if
oil sands are allowed to expand to the limit recently set by the Alberta
government, a Canada-wide carbon price starting at $30 in 2017 must jump $10
each year to reach $160 in 2030. In other words, significantly shifting to cars
and trucks that rely on renewable electricity, ethanol and biodiesel would
require raising gasoline prices by about 40 cents per litre (on top of other
taxes and all production costs), which is the result of having a carbon price
of $160. This is why, if he has survival instincts, Trudeau won’t depend solely
on carbon pricing. Instead, he will do what serious jurisdictions do: regulate.
And this is what we’ve done in Canada, although many fail to see it.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">When
asked which climate policy in Canada reduced the most CO2 emissions over
the last decade, many people guess BC’s well-publicized carbon tax. They’re
wrong. It was Ontario’s ban on coal-fired power, which reduced annual emissions
by 25 megatonnes (MT). Surely, then, BC’s carbon tax must have caused the most
reductions in that province. Wrong again. The 2007 “clean electricity”
regulation forced BC Hydro to cancel two private coal plants and its own gas
plant. This cut BC’s projected annual emissions in 2020 by 12 to 18 MT. The
carbon tax is slated to reduce 2020 annual emissions by 3 to 5 MT.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">It’s
the same in any jurisdiction that has significantly reduced emissions. Experts
show that the carbon pricing policy in California, which Quebec has now joined,
will have almost no effect by 2020. Ninety percent of that state’s current and
projected reductions are attributed to innovative, flexible regulations on
electricity, fuels, vehicles, buildings, appliances, equipment and land use.
Even Scandinavian countries, famous for two decades of carbon taxes, mostly
used regulations to reduce emissions. For example, the greatest
CO2 reductions in Sweden happened when publicly owned district heat
providers were forced to switch fuels.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">Economists
will point out that regulations may have high “implicit” carbon prices. (This
is the carbon price that would be required to cause the same amount of
emissions reduction.) Indeed, I and other analysts have estimated an implicit
carbon price for Ontario’s coal phase-out of $100 to $130, for BC’s clean
electricity regulation of $80 to $120, and for California’s vehicle emissions
standard of over $100. But is this high implicit price a bad thing? If it is
politically impossible to raise “explicit” carbon prices to $160 to achieve our
Paris promise, then at least regulations can get to that price implicitly —
today. And Trudeau might get to keep his job.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">Many
economists — who, I repeat, never face voters — argue that regulations are
economically inefficient compared with carbon pricing. This is true, especially
if the regulations are poorly designed. Too bad that so few of these economists
are willing to apply their intelligence and creativity to the design of
relatively efficient regulations that also overcome the huge blockade of
political acceptability. Fortunately, some have.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">The
history of California’s vehicle emissions standard is illustrative. Since 1990,
that state has required vehicle manufacturers and retailers to achieve rising
market shares for zero-emissions vehicles (ZEVs) and partial-zero-emissions
vehicles (PZEVs). Thanks to the influence of some creative designers (perhaps
renegade economists), that policy does not pick technology winners and losers.
For the ZEV category, for example, it is agnostic (when it comes to
CO2 emissions) between pure electric, hydrogen fuel cell and pure biofuel.
So, as they compete with each other, auto manufacturers have strong incentives
to innovate technologies and better understand emerging consumer preferences.
And they quietly cross-subsidize to achieve their sales targets, charging
people who buy gas guzzlers a bit more per vehicle in order to reduce the sales
price of the higher-cost ZEVs, which they must sell to achieve their market
share targets. Conveniently, there is no cost to government. Nor is government
blamed for levying a high tax on gas guzzlers.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">The
California PZEV-ZEV regulation also allows manufacturers to trade among
themselves in meeting sales targets, again reducing economic inefficiency. And
the regulation is flexibly applied in response to new information. In the early
2000s, manufacturers convinced regulators to increase the PZEV target in
compensation for delaying the ZEV mandate, the reason being that their
incredible success with developing hybrid vehicles like the Toyota Prius was
achieving the overall emissions objective, and they needed more time to develop
consumer-attractive electric and hydrogen options for ZEVs. Today, the ZEVs and
PZEVs are marching ahead, especially thanks to electric cars and plug-in hybrid
electric cars, the latter important for people who must use a car continuously
during the day for travel within or between cities. Thus, the market, not
regulators, is ultimately determining the relative contribution of each vehicle
category to total emissions reductions.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">Another
concern about regulations is that the implicit carbon price will differ from
one sector of the economy to another, resulting again in economic inefficiency.
(Which conveniently ignores the same inconsistency in all real-world carbon
pricing schemes.) But government can adjust the stringency of regulations in
different sectors over time in order to align implicit carbon prices. What
makes regulating CO2 emissions so convenient is that a few sectors and
energy uses account for most emissions. Regulations on electricity generation,
furnaces in buildings, boilers in industry, oil and gas production processes,
and transportation propulsion systems, like the PZEV-ZEV program, can address
75 percent of Canada’s energy-related CO2 emissions.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">This
brief description does not do justice to the creative potential for implicit
carbon pricing that is politically acceptable without a big cost in terms of
economic efficiency. But how can this help Trudeau, who seeks to develop a
national climate plan with the premiers in March?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">To
start, Trudeau must recognize that the premiers are unlikely to agree to
nationwide, explicit carbon pricing (via tax or cap-and-trade) that comes close
to the level needed to achieve Canada’s Paris promise. (Remember, this is a
carbon price that climbs rapidly to $160 by 2030.) While he should encourage
the development of explicit provincial carbon pricing, he should immediately
develop an implicit carbon pricing strategy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">An
obvious starting point is road transport. He can do this by following in the
footsteps of — you’d never guess — Stephen Harper. Like previous prime
ministers, Harper continued the practice of aligning Canada’s vehicle
regulations with those in the US. The US vehicle regulations focus on fuel
economy and then tack on emissions criteria. Much better would be to take a
page from California by implementing emissions-focused regulations that
reinforce and accelerate that state’s effort to change vehicle propulsion
systems away from burning gasoline and diesel — regardless of energy efficiency
levels. This policy can apply to cars and trucks. In the latter case, biodiesel
is likely to play a larger role, although electricity and hydrogen cannot be
ruled out. Again, we now have the technological options — mostly thanks to
California’s earlier regulations — so we can let the market decide which of
these does best.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">My
research group has estimated that a balanced and flexible PZEV-ZEV standard in
Canada that forced vehicle manufacturers and retailers to hit market share
targets of 10 percent of new sales by 2020 and 70 percent of new sales by 2030
would reduce annual emissions from this sector by 40 percent. The implicit
carbon price is difficult to estimate, because it depends on the future price
of oil. If the oil price stays low, the implicit carbon price of the standard
is $150. If the oil price rises to average $60 per barrel over the next 13
years, the implicit carbon price is under $100. (Switching away from
gasoline-fuelled cars is less costly when their fuel is more expensive.)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">Another
obvious sector to target is electricity. Again, Trudeau can turn up the dial on
a soft Harper regulation so that, by 2030, all coal power plants must be closed
or retrofitted with carbon capture and storage, and natural gas plants would be
mostly restricted to backing up intermittent renewables like wind, solar and
run-of-river hydro. Because the impacts of the policy are not equal across the
country, Trudeau might have to provide some help to Alberta, Saskatchewan and
Nova Scotia, but it should not be much. Already Alberta and Nova Scotia have
been working on major transitions away from coal. Trudeau’s regulation needs to
make sure that the displaced coal is not all replaced with natural gas.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">Non-auto
transport (buses, trucks, trains, ships), industrial boilers, building space
and water heating, and oil and gas are other obvious sectors and end uses for
which Trudeau can implement flexible, relatively efficient regulations. My
research group and I have found that modest carbon pricing by the provinces in
concert with a targeted portfolio of such federal regulations, which are
carefully monitored to approximately equate their implicit carbon prices, can
enable Canada to achieve the Paris target without harming trade-exposed
industries.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">Although implementation of effective climate
policies will never be easy, there are politically palatable options that have
a proven track record of achieving reductions in Canada and abroad. Rather than
listen to those who ignore evidence, Trudeau should focus on developing
creative solutions in a second-best world. Yes, encourage emissions pricing.
But heed the evidence on the effective and relatively efficient role that
well-crafted regulations can play in driving the major technological and energy
transition we so desperately need.</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Mark Jaccardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18436507359062754635noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8673054424836004065.post-6928021925372411192015-12-01T10:49:00.004-08:002016-03-14T09:15:13.220-07:00My #KeystoneXL and #COP21-related media blitz<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">I have given a large number of interviews to media outlets in the past few weeks relating to President Obama's rejection of the Keystone XL pipeline, COP21: The 2015 Paris Climate Summit and recent Canadian climate policy developments and potential. </span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Links and brief descriptions are below:</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Nov. 6, 2015 </span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="https://www.facebook.com/CTVNewsChannel/videos/987845121276819/" target="_blank">CTV News</a> 'Obama says no to Keystone XL pipeline'</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="http://www.680news.com/2015/11/06/victory-for-the-people-environmentalists-cheer-obama-decision-on-keystone/" target="_blank">680News</a> '<span style="color: #333333;">Victory for the people: Environmentalists cheer Obama decision on Keystone'</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #333333;">Interview in <a href="http://www.vice.com/en_ca/read/environmentalists-shouldnt-take-pipeline-slowdown-as-a-win-for-activism" target="_blank">Vice</a>: Environmentalists shouldn't take pipeline slowdown as a win for activism</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white;"><b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Nov. 9, 2015 </span></b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="http://globalnews.ca/video/2329680/analyzing-obamas-decision-on-keystone-xl-pipeline" style="background-color: white;" target="_blank">Global News</a><span style="background-color: white;"> </span><span style="background-color: white;">BC1: Political strategist and commentator Alise Mills, and Simon Fraser University’s Mark Jaccard discuss the ramifications of U.S. President Barack Obama rejecting the Keystone XL pipeline from going ahead.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b></b></span></span><br />
<a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b>Nov. 10, 2015</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">My <a href="https://www.biv.com/article/2015/11/political-will-needed-drive-green-power-play/" target="_blank">Business in Vancouver</a> [BIV] interview with Nelson Bennett '</span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">Political will needed to drive green power play. </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">Zero-emission technologies here now, but policies and infrastructure lacking'</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "\22 georgia\22 " , "\22 times new roman\22 " , serif;">Another </span><a href="https://www.biv.com/article/2015/11/can-we-move-fossil-free-future-without-wrecking-ou/" target="_blank">Business in Vancouver</a> <span style="font-family: "\22 georgia\22 " , "\22 times new roman\22 " , serif;">[BIV] interview with Jen St. Denis: '</span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">Can we move to a fossil-free future without wrecking our economy? A</span><span style="font-family: inherit;">s immense as the challenge seems, experts say it is possible to change the world’s energy diet'</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"></span>
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Nov. 19, 2015</span></b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="http://policyoptions.irpp.org/issues/november-2015/theparisclimatesummit/" target="_blank">Policy Options</a> <span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #292f33; white-space: pre-wrap;">My thoughts on Canada at Paris in Policy Options </span><span class="twitter-hashflag-container" style="display: inline-block; white-space: pre-wrap;"><a class="twitter-hashtag pretty-link js-nav" data-query-source="hashtag_click" dir="ltr" href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/COP21?src=hash" style="text-decoration: none;">#COP21</a> '</span></span><span style="background-color: white;">Ca</span>nada has consistently failed to deliver, but it’s not too late for us to make a major contribution at the climate summit in Paris.'</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Nov. 20, 2015</span></b></span><br />
<span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="http://www.desmog.ca/2015/11/20/first-thing-canada-can-do-paris-admit-why-un-climate-talks-have-failed-two-decades" target="_blank">DeSmog Canada</a> 'The First Thing Canada Can Do in Paris is Admit Why UN Climate Talks Have Failed for Two Decades.'</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span>
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Nov. 20, 2015</span></b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">An </span><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7834lHKMlDnbXJQd2VBSzh0MzQ/view" style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;" target="_blank">Open Letter</a><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> to Premier Clark outlines elements of effective policies ahead of the first ministers' meeting with Prime Minister Trudeau. </span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Academics set criteria for successful climate action by British Columbia</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b>Nov. 22, 2015</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">An interview of me in <a href="http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/setting-the-table-for-trudeaus-dinner-with-the-premiers/" target="_blank">Macleans</a> magazine by Aaron Wherry<span style="background-color: white; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 'Setting the table for Trudeau's dinner with the premiers.'</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="background-color: white; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b>Nov. 23, 2015</b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Me interviewed by <a href="http://insideclimatenews.org/news/23112015/alberta-canada-tar-sands-climate-change-coal-paris-climate-talks" target="_blank">Inside Climate News</a> on Alberta's New Climate Plan: What You Need to Know</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Nov. 24, 2015</span></b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="https://www.facebook.com/CTVNewsChannel/videos/993995690661762/" target="_blank">CTV News</a> talking about the meeting between <span style="background-color: white; color: #141823;">Prime Minister Trudeau and Canada's Premiers</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #141823;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #141823;"><b>Nov. 26, 2015</b></span></span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #292f33; letter-spacing: 0.25999999046325684px; white-space: pre-wrap;">My interview on </span><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-carbon-tax-world-leader-1.3337679" target="_blank">CBC's On the Coast with Stephen Quinn</a><span style="color: #292f33; letter-spacing: 0.25999999046325684px; white-space: pre-wrap;">: Is Christy Clark justified in bragging about B.C.'s carbon tax? [Article and link to radio program]</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></b>
<b><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Nov. 28, 2015</span></b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit;">CBC's <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/radio/quirks/quirks-quarks-for-nov-28-2015-1.3339693/the-climate-challenge-beyond-paris-1.3339701" target="_blank">Quirks and Quarks</a> - The Climate Challenge - Beyond Paris</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b>Nov. 29, 2015</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;">My </span><a href="http://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2015/11/29/how-canada-can-move-beyond-empty-promises-in-paris.html" style="font-family: inherit;" target="_blank">Op-Ed in the Toronto Star </a><span style="font-family: inherit;">on how Canada can move beyond empty promises in Paris</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></b>
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Nov. 30, 2015</span></b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="color: #292f33; white-space: pre-wrap;"><a href="http://podcast.cbc.ca/mp3/podcasts/bcalmanac_20151130_66066.mp3" target="_blank">PODCAST: BC Almanac</a> </span><a class="twitter-atreply pretty-link js-nav" data-mentioned-user-id="19240337" dir="ltr" href="https://twitter.com/christyclarkbc" style="color: #0084b4; text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="color: #66b5d2;">@</span>ChristyClarkBC</a><span style="color: #292f33; white-space: pre-wrap;"> + </span><a class="twitter-atreply pretty-link js-nav" data-mentioned-user-id="876605660" dir="ltr" href="https://twitter.com/MarkJaccard" style="color: #0084b4; text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="color: #66b5d2;">@</span>MarkJaccard</a><span style="color: #292f33; white-space: pre-wrap;"> on B.C.'s </span><a class="twitter-hashtag pretty-link js-nav" data-query-source="hashtag_click" dir="ltr" href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GHG?src=hash" style="color: #0084b4; text-decoration: none; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="color: #66b5d2;">#</span>GHG</a><span style="color: #292f33; white-space: pre-wrap;"> targets.</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b>Nov. 30, 2015</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">CBC's <a href="http://canadapodcasts.ca/podcasts/TheCurrent/4658224" target="_blank">The Current</a> My discussion [starts at time 18:15] with Anna Maria Tremonti - </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Paris climate summit hinges on two degrees Celsius</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; letter-spacing: -0.6px;">My comment in the </span><a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/partners/advclimatechange1215/measures-for-reducing-our-carbon-footprint/article27532153/" style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif; letter-spacing: -0.6px;" target="_blank">Globe and Mail</a><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; letter-spacing: -0.6px;">: Measures for reducing our carbon footprint</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; letter-spacing: -0.6px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; letter-spacing: -0.6px;"><b>Dec. 5, 2015</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; letter-spacing: -0.6px;">Pete McMartin's interview with me in the <a href="http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/pete+mcmartin+climate+change+change+apostasy+mark+jaccard/11567113/story.html" target="_blank">Vancouver Sun</a> entitled "</span></span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Climate-change change, or the apostasy of Mark Jaccard. </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">We have the technology to reduce emmisions, he says, what we need now is the political will"</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
Mark Jaccardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18436507359062754635noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8673054424836004065.post-69009803750396181242015-10-15T21:58:00.000-07:002015-10-16T08:40:17.571-07:00Canadian climate policy and your vote<div class="MsoNormal">
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“Policy academics are cheap dates.” One of my mentors,
professor Aiden Vining, loved saying that. His point was that we policy
academics will gladly pay for our own dinner if we think that a politician, <i>of any political stripe,</i> wants our
advice. This explains why, in my 30 years of climate policy research, I have willingly
advised Conservatives, Liberals, NDP and Greens, sometimes when in power,
sometimes in opposition. Once, a politician actually paid for my dinner – at
McDonalds.</div>
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I have learned some things that are relevant to this federal
election. One lesson is that climate policy is really, really hard. Our
political system has strong incentives for politicians <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">not</i> to implement effective climate policies. To be effective, policies
must either price CO2 emissions or regulate CO2-causing fuels and technologies.
These <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">compulsory </i>policies impose short-term
costs (real and perceived) on some people, some of whom will wage war on the
guilty politician. As in all wars, truth is the first casualty: the climate
policy and its implementing politician will be blamed for completely unrelated
misfortunes by these people, powerful backers, and a media that loves attacking
politicians.</div>
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Given the clear and present danger of implementing effective
climate policy, and the fact that most benefits from such policy will occur after
the politician’s career is over, the instinct is to do little or nothing. If
the appearance of action is politically important, this may include a seemingly
sincere list of innocuous policies that don’t impose costs but also don’t
reduce emissions – such as fridge labels, advertisements, subsidies for
insulation, etc.<o:p></o:p></div>
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At this point, I must repeat myself because often I’ll hear
or read “Jaccard says we must have carbon taxes” or “Jaccard says only
regulations work.” Neither is true. My message to politicians for at least 15
years has been consistent. Emissions won’t fall without compulsory policies,
which could be emissions pricing via carbon taxes or cap-and-trade, or could be
regulations on fuels and technologies. Neither pricing nor regulations is
essential. But you must have at least one. I am agnostic as to choice, since
this involves a difficult political trade-off between economic efficiency and
political acceptability. If the politician wants to go with regulations, make
sure to design them with economic efficiency in mind. If it’s to be emissions pricing,
design this with political acceptability in mind.<o:p></o:p></div>
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In that regard, perhaps it was also Aiden Vining who once
said, “The economist who insists on carbon taxes should be tied to a stake
positioned between a large crowd of taxpayers and the politician who announces
the carbon tax – making sure to thank the economist.”<o:p></o:p></div>
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Because ‘faking it’ policies are prevalent, my job is to
explain how they must change, first to the politician, then to the public if
the politician does nothing. This is why I recently issued a ‘<a href="http://markjaccard.blogspot.ca/2015/10/canadian-climate-policy-report-card-2015.html" target="_blank">report card’ on the Harper government’s climate record</a> (and issued earlier ones on the Chretien
government). In nine years, Harper has not implemented a single policy that
would <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">significantly</i> reduce Canadian
CO2 emissions in any sector of the economy before 2020. And this is why I and
other independent entities, like the Commissioner on Environment and
Sustainability in the Office of the Auditor General, have said that his 2020
reduction promise is now unattainable. He never tried to attain it – <i>ergo</i>, he had
no intention of attaining it, <i>ergo</i> he was not being honest when he made the
promise.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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We cannot be sure that a Liberal, NDP or coalition
government will do better. But in an uncertain world, we have to base our vote
on probabilities. Provincial Liberal governments in Quebec, Ontario and BC have
implemented the kinds of compulsory policies we must have, especially BC with
its near-zero-emission electricity regulation and its carbon tax, and Quebec
with its emissions cap-and-trade program that is integrated with the same
policy in California. Ontario’s Liberal government is seeking to join this
program and an NDP government in Alberta is assessing compulsory policies. But
I have learned, in the latter two cases, to wait for real action before giving
credit.<o:p></o:p></div>
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So, if the urgent task is to defeat Harper in this election –
in hopes that a future Conservative leader is more like Gordon Campbell or even
(what fun!) Arnold Schwarzenegger – then voters need to be ‘strategic.’ (I even
counsel Conservatives I know to vote against their usual political preference
in order to remove Harper and several say they intend to.) It is still very
possible that Harper will win the most seats and then retain power by
playing-off the Liberals and NDP, just as he did from 2006 to 2011. ‘Strategic voting’ is how we prevent this. It means voting for the Liberal, NDP, Green or
Bloc candidate whom last-minute polls show has the greatest chance of defeating
the Conservative – especially when those polls show a tight race with the
possibility of the Conservative benefitting from a split in the anti-Harper
vote.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Some Green, Liberal and NDP voters are absolutely against strategic
voting. They say they must ‘vote their conscience.’ I say they should ‘vote
their intelligence <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">and</i> their
conscience.’ We do not have a proportional representation system in which every
vote has weight. We have 338 separate ‘highest-percentage-wins’ contests in
which there is a real cost to voting for the 3<sup>rd</sup> or 4<sup>th</sup>
place finisher when the 2<sup>nd</sup> place finisher could have defeated a
Conservative and thereby ended the unconscionable Harper era. In such cases,
‘voting your conscience’ gives you some responsibility for another 4 years of
Harper, just as those who voted for Ralph Nader in Florida in 2000 bear some
responsibility for the George W. Bush presidency. Had just 600 hundred of them
voted strategically, Al Gore would have been president, and the US would have a
major emissions pricing system in place today – as would likely all major
emitting countries.<br />
<br />
Fortunately, many people learned from Harper’s 2011 victory,
in which he won a majority with under 40% of the vote. Some of these people are
working hard to encourage and inform strategic voting. <span class="" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 12pt;">I suggest you visit websites that provide riding specific polls, including the very latest trends, and see what ‘voting your intelligence <i class="">and</i> your conscience’ might do in your riding.</span><span style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 14px;"> </span></div>
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Mark Jaccardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18436507359062754635noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8673054424836004065.post-63870546195798353622015-10-10T06:54:00.001-07:002015-10-15T22:00:50.787-07:00Canadian Climate Policy Report Card: 2015<div class="page" title="Page 1">
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<span style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-weight: 700;">Executive Summary</span></div>
<span style="font-weight: 700;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Over the past three decades, governments in developed countries have made many
commitments to reduce a specific quantity or percentage of greenhouse gases by a specific
date, but often they have failed to implement effective climate policies that would achieve
their commitment. Fortunately, energy-economy analysts can determine well in advance of
the target date if a government is keeping its promise. In this 2015 climate policy report
card, I evaluate the Canadian government’s emission commitments and policy actions. I
find that in the nine years since its promise to reduce Canadian emissions 20% by 2020 and
65% by 2050, the Canadian government has implemented virtually no polices that would
materially reduce emissions. The 2020 target is now unachievable without great harm to
the Canadian economy. And this may also be the case for the 2050 target, this latter
requiring an almost complete transformation of the Canadian energy system in the
remaining 35 years after almost a decade of inaction.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-weight: 700;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Canadian Climate Policy Report Card: 2015</span></span><br />
<u><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></u>
<u><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Background</span></u><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A critical challenge to preventing the harms from human-produced greenhouse gas emissions,
especially CO2 from burning fossil fuels, is that elected representatives face weak incentives to
implement effective climate policies and strong incentives to implement no or ineffective
policies. There are several reasons.</span><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="page2image2912" height="0.480000" src="file:///page2image2912" width="58.560020" /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">First, significant CO2 emissions reductions require ‘compulsory policies’ – regulation of
technologies and energy forms and/or pricing of CO2 emissions – and these are seen to cause
immediate costs for some even though the long-term benefits for society exceed these costs.
These immediate costs would begin during the mandate of current politicians, and have
significant political risks, while the benefits of avoiding climate change will mostly occur after
the career of current political leaders.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"></span><br />
<a name='more'></a><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Second, the benefit from taking action to reduce emissions is uncertain because success against
human-caused climate disruption requires that most other countries also reduce emissions. With
the exception of the largest two emitters, China and the US, efforts by a single country would
have a negligible effect in reducing future harms from rising CO2 concentrations. This argument
provides an excuse for political leaders in a given jurisdiction to delay action until there is a
near-universal global effort, conveniently ignoring the fact that this very requirement renders an
effective global effort extremely unlikely.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Third, it is difficult for non-experts to know if a government’s climate policies are having an
effect until much valuable time has been lost. If a person agrees with his or her doctor to lose 10
kilos over the next six months for health reasons, both know that this promise will not be kept if
the doctor finds after four months that the person has actually gained weight. With national CO2
emission promises, however, there is no authoritative third party, like a personal doctor, to
monitor the government’s progress and assess the likelihood of meeting its commitment.
Without that check, governments may continue to claim they will meet their commitment even
though it is obvious to experts they will not.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">In producing this ‘report card’, I address this third problem by providing an evaluation of the
Canadian government’s progress in fulfilling its emission reduction promises since its election in
2006. My assessment is primarily based on simulations using an energy-economy, micro-
economic model called CIMS, with some of its results adjusted to reflect information from an
energy-economy, macro-economic model called GEEM.<span style="vertical-align: 6pt;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">1</span> </span>Most of the analysis I rely on was
conducted by researchers under my direction in the School of Resource and Environmental
Management at Simon Fraser University. I have produced similar evaluations over the past two
decades, some as a research fellow at the CD Howe Institute, some published in refereed academic journals, some as an advisor to the Canadian government, and some as an advisor to
independent entities such as the National Roundtable on the Environment and the Economy.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<u><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Evaluation
</span></u><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Within a year of its 2006 election, the Harper government promised to reduce Canadian GHG
emissions 20% by 2020 and 65-70% by 2050. It claimed, moreover, that it would achieve these
commitments by regulating technologies, fuels and individual industrial sectors rather than by
emissions pricing.<span style="vertical-align: 6pt;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">2
</span></span></span><br />
<span style="vertical-align: 6pt;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Canada could have a near-zero-emission energy system with currently available technologies,
but the rate of energy system transformation has a large effect on costs. In electricity generation,
Ontario decreased its GHG emissions over 80% in one decade by closing or converting its coal-
fired power plants – shifting toward nuclear, hydro, wood, wind, small hydro, solar and some
natural gas. This was in part possible because coal had previously provided only 25% of
Ontario’s electricity. Even so, Ontario had initially tried to close its coal plants in just four years,
but this proved too costly so the target was delayed.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The more quickly society tries to reduce emissions, the greater the cost, since this is likely to
require the premature replacement of still-useful plant and equipment. Energy system
transformation that occurs at the natural rate of turnover of plant and equipment is much less
costly. Electricity plants provide one example. Vehicles provide another. Near-zero-emission
vehicle technologies and fuels are commercially available, including biodiesel, ethanol, plug-in
hybrid electric, pure electric and soon hydrogen fuel cell. But vehicles last 14 years on average,
and 2020 is just over four years away. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">An effort to significantly reduce transportation emissions
would be expensive if an ambitious government regulatory effort only occurred four years before
the deadline. In other sectors of the economy, like major energy-using industries and buildings,
the turnover rate of much of plant and equipment is so slow that even a decade provides little
opportunity for significant, low-cost reductions.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Soon after the Harper government made its 2020 promise, I and a research associate estimated
the cost and effectiveness of the policies it proposed to achieve its target.<span style="vertical-align: 6pt;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">3</span> </span>The suggested policies
were a mix of information programs, subsidies and proposed intensity-based emissions caps.
Using the CIMS model, we estimated that these policies would not significantly reduce
emissions. As it turned out, the government abandoned most of the policies anyway, but
promised to soon replace them with sector-by-sector emissions regulations to meet its promise.
However, it has still not done so, and as of 2015 virtually all GHG emissions in Canada have no regulatory constraints or emissions charges imposed by the federal government. Nine years have
passed since regulations were first promised.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Two initiatives of the federal government have sometimes been suggested as affecting GHG
emissions in the 2020 timeframe, but this is not supported by evidence. In 2012, the government
established regulations for new coal-fired power plants. Since no new coal plants are planned in
the 2020 timeframe, these regulations make no contribution to achieving the government’s 2020
commitment, nor even in the 2020-2030 period. In contrast to the Canadian approach, the US
government is in the process of finalizing significant emissions controls that will immediately
constrain the current operations and force the early closure of existing coal-fired power plants.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">The second initiative has been to harmonize Canadian vehicle efficiency regulations with
regulations imposed by the US government. These would reduce fuel use somewhat after 2016
and, more significantly, after 2020. While improved efficiency potentially reduces fuel
consumption and CO2 emissions (only if greater vehicle use does not offset the efficiency
reduction), it does not have the CO2 effect of policies targeted directly at changing fuels and
propulsion systems, such as California’s ‘low carbon fuel standard’ and ‘vehicle emissions
standard’. Canada has not adopted these regulations, yet they are the only way in which its
preferred regulatory approach could have achieved its promised reductions in a sector like
transportation.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">As noted, I conduct this evaluation to compensate for the lack of an external check on the GHG
reduction promises of politicians. However, while the Commissioner on Environment and
Sustainability under the Auditor General of Canada lacks the modeling capacity to fully evaluate
the likelihood that the government is acting to meet its commitments, in 2012 it nonetheless
produced an evaluation based on modeling by Environment Canada. It noted that because the
government had done little, including still not implementing emissions regulations in the all-
important oil and gas sector, “it is unlikely that enough time is left to develop and establish
greenhouse gas regulations ... to meet the 2020 target.”<span style="vertical-align: 6pt;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">4</span> </span>That statement was made in 2012, with
eight years remaining to the 2020 target. Today, in 2015, still no additional climate regulations
have been passed at the federal level.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Even with no federal policies, it is conceivable that Canada’s emissions will fall somewhat for
other reasons. The global recession of 2008-2009 caused a temporary reduction in Canadian
emissions. Provincial climate policies may also play a role. Ontario’s closure of its coal plants
was by far the single greatest cause of emission reductions in Canada in the past decade. And the
BC government issued a near-zero-emission electricity requirement in 2007 which led to the
cancellation of two proposed coal-fired power plants and a large natural gas-fired plant. National
emissions would have climbed more rapidly were it not for these provincial policies.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">In 2014, a research associate under my direction used the CIMS model to estimate the relative
effects of the federal government’s policies (such as the coal plant regulations) and other
developments (such as provincial climate policies) on Canadian emissions in the 2020 and 2050
timeframes to assess the likelihood that the federal government would keep its emission
reduction promises.<span style="vertical-align: 6pt;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">5</span> </span>Even with the economic recession and the proposed climate policies of
provincial governments, the study found that emissions in 2020 would be over 20% higher than
the Canadian government’s promise (744 Mt CO2 instead of 612 Mt.). This is almost identical to
an estimate made by Environment Canada with a similar model a year earlier.<span style="vertical-align: 6pt;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">6</span> </span>A key factor in
both studies is the assumption that oil sands production would rise from 1.9 million barrels per
day in 2012 to 3.4 in 2020. Even though oil sands expansion is one of the major reasons why the
Canadian government would break its emissions promise, its promotion of this expansion is
nonetheless one of its highest priorities.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Finally, because the federal government has done virtually nothing to reduce emissions, my
research associate calculated that the government, at this late date, would need to apply a carbon
tax of $50 in 2015 that rises in annual increments to over $150 by 2020 in order to keep its
climate promise.<span style="vertical-align: 6pt;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">7</span> </span>Moreover, even the 2050 target is in jeopardy, unless government very soon
implements a significant and rising price on carbon emissions or regulations of equivalent effect.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<u><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Report Card
</span></u><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">In 2006 the Canadian government committed to reduce national GHG emissions 20% by 2020
and 65-70% by 2050. The government claimed, moreover, that it would use regulations (rather
than emissions pricing) to force the shift toward low emission fuels and technologies throughout
the Canadian economy.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Since 2006, the government has implemented no regulations that would materially reduce
Canadian GHG emissions from what they otherwise would be in 2020. The two regulations it has
implemented (coal plant emissions and vehicle efficiency) may slightly slow the growth of
emissions after 2020, but they would contribute only marginally to the energy system
transformation that must occur by 2050 for the government to keep its promise. Because of nine
years of inaction, it may already be extremely costly to achieve the 2050 target.
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>In climate policy, the Canadian government has done virtually nothing to keep its 2020 and 2050
emission reduction promises. A failing grade is the obvious result.</b></span><br />
_______________<br />
<span style="vertical-align: 5pt;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="vertical-align: 5pt;">1 </span>Brief descriptions of these two models are provided in Peters, J., Bataille, C., Rivers, N. and M. Jaccard, <span style="font-style: italic;">Taxing Emissions, Not Income, </span>2010, CD Howe Institute.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="vertical-align: 5pt;">2 </span>Government of Canada, 2007, <span style="font-style: italic;">Regulatory Framework for Air Emissions</span>. Government of Canada, 2008, <span style="font-style: italic;">Turning the Corner</span>. While the government later changed its 2020 target slightly, from 20% to 17% reduction, this has no significance for the analysis and evaluation reported here. To discourage mid-stream target changes, I focus here on the initial promise of the federal government in 2006.</span><br />
<span style="vertical-align: 5pt;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="vertical-align: 5pt;">3 </span>Jaccard, M. and N. Rivers, 2007, <span style="font-style: italic;">Estimating the Effect of the Canadian Government’s 2006-2007 Greenhouse Gas Policies</span>, CD Howe Institute.</span></span><br />
<span style="vertical-align: 5pt;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="vertical-align: 5pt;">4 </span>Auditor General of Canada, Commissioner on Environment and Sustainability, 2012, <span style="font-style: italic;">Meeting Canada’s 2020 Climate Change Commitments</span>.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="vertical-align: 5pt;">5 </span>Kniewasser, M., 2014, <span style="font-style: italic;">Achieving Canada’s Climate Targets and the Impacts on Alberta’s Oil Sands Industry</span>,
Master’s Project, School of Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University.<br />
<span style="vertical-align: 5pt;">6 </span>Environment Canada, 2013, <span style="font-style: italic;">Canada’s Emissions Trends 2013</span>.<br />
<span style="vertical-align: 5pt;">7 </span>Kniewasser, M., 2014, <span style="font-style: italic;">Achieving Canada’s Climate Targets and the Impacts on Alberta’s Oil Sands Industry</span>,
Master’s Project, School of Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University</span></div>
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Mark Jaccardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18436507359062754635noreply@blogger.com0